NEW WEEKLY POST: UK Thunderstorm Risk Outlook For Monday Through Friday (2-6 Jul, 2012)

Written by on July 2, 2012 in United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

As temperatures rise and low pressure approaches, so the thunderstorm risk increases through this week!

This week’s T-Storm Threat Level Is SLIGHT TO MODERATE

As you can see I now have a weekly temperature forecast for towns throughout the UK and Ireland for you that will be updated weekly (every Sunday), be sure to check out your nearest town or city’s temperature for the next 5 days!

I am trying very hard to get stuff on here for you wich looks AHEAD of time and trying to show you stuff that you can’t and won’t get elsewhere.

I outlooked in several posts to you the risk coming up to last Thursday’s severe storms and I was proven correct and accurate. I do not mean that arrogantly but it’s important to look back at a forecast and weigh up how it turned out against the actual event. This was not the only significant weather event during June and within the first 4 weeks of this site operating where you, the subscriber was warned of impending weather well ahead of time. The wild weather of last Thursday could be seen a mile off yet the BBC and others were caught like rabbits in the headlights when we saw thunderstorms turn severe, produce damaging winds, golf ball sized hail, flash flooding etc etc. All these ‘unusual’ elements simply came together because we had a mature low with cold aloft, drag over top of warmth and humidity which the low itself pulled up ahead of the cold front. This was NO SURPRISE and certainly shouldn’t have been for you if you read my posts and watch my video.

I want to try and show you WHY your paying £3 a month. My justification is simple. Your getting the information AHEAD of the public and this gives you the advantage in terms of planning or rearranging your plans which could safe time, money, even your life believe it or not. Unfortunately, both the Met Office and the messenger, the BBC, do not see potential but simply go solely by the models. Anyone can read a computer model but it’s vital to attempt to interprete what’s it’s saying and understanding what can happen when certain things happen. That is what I will strive to do.

Anyway.. I have waffled along here long enough…

In this weekly post I will try to outline what the risk will be for thunderstorm development for the week ahead across the UK, Britain and even Europe.

Below are a bunch of maps I have lifted off the MeteoGroup which looks at CAPE value (Convective Available Potential Energy). In laymens terms, this GFS interpretation shows where there is greatest energy and chance for upward motion and possible thunderstorms. The brighter the colour the greater the rate in which air rises.

This Week’s Set-Up

This week may see some decent thunderstorm development as we have warmth converging with upper level energy, like we saw last week but at MUCH lower levels.

Notice how the brightest colours reside from Italy up to Germany, this is where the trough and ridge boundary lies, where warmest air meets incoming cool. The high to the east pumps warmth north and as this flow travels over the warm Med Sea, it addsd humidity to this hot air. As this flow bumps up against the front, all this low level fuel gets forced to rise rapidly up into the cold air which is being drawn in with low pressure and the trough out of the northwest. This will each and every afternoon this week spark powerful thunderstorms from northern Italy to the southern Baltic Sea up into western Russia.

As for the UK, we have a new Atlantic low approaching Ireland and as it does so, it will pull warmth and humidity out of the south. The cooling of the mid and upper levels and increase in warmth and humidity in the low levels, raises the level of instability and convective potential over parts of southern Ireland first (today and Tuesday) with Southwest and western parts of the UK, Tuesday, by Wednesday the low will have greatestly cooled the 500mb (20,000ft) level temperature while the 850mb temp (5,000ft temp) will have warmed. This raises the thunderstorm chance as the rate of upward motion will increase. The faster the air rises from warm to cold, the greater easier it is for the atmosphere to build thunderstorms.

Wednesday sees greatest risk for widespread slight risk for t-storm development, Thursday poses highest risk over Northern UK

What Does CAPE Mean? Convective available potential energy

Tuesday sees Ireland and western UK with greatest T-storm chance (Courtesy of MeteoGroup)

Wednesday has the greatest coverage over the UK with a slight risk of T-storm development (Courtesy of MeteoGroup)

During today and Tuesday, the greatest chance of thunderstorms will be over parts of Ireland, Southwest and western England.

Wednesday looks to see the greatest widespread slight risk for thunderstorm development over the UK. The risk is ‘slight’ due to the likely high amount of cloud coverage. Areas which see sunshine pop through could may go to moderate risk as sunshine warming the surface will increase upward motion and convective potential. Cloudcover surpresses the upward motion.

By Thursday the low will be centred over Southern England and with a better chance of brightness over northern England and Scotland along with a push of warmer air flowing around the circulation, there is higher risk over the Northern UK Thursday, less over the South with cloud and cooler surface temps.

By this weekend there is low risk as the trough drops down, cooling the lower atmosphere.

By Thursday it’s northern Englan, Scotland and Northern Ireland with greatest ‘slight to moderate’ chance of t-storm development (Courtesy of MeteoGroup)

By Thursday it’s northern Englan, Scotland and Northern Ireland with greatest ‘slight to moderate’ chance of t-storm development. Low risk over Southern UK (Courtesy of MeteoGroup)


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