Feature Which Fuels Heat, Humidity & Storms Next 3 Days Comes Ashore As 990mb Low Friday

Written by on June 25, 2012 in United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

The next few days will be interesting as we see the warmth and humidity surge north over the UK from Iberia. It will become muggy but what I’m toiling with tonight is just how much of a likihood we see of big storms developing. While the warmest air will be over England and Wales where by Wednesday and Thursday afternoon I could see a 26 to 28C showing up, there have been times before where it’s looked as though we were in for big storms, only to find a cloudy, dreary, muggy day.

Because of the flow drawing up from a warm source, despite any cloud, we should still feel warm. For Scotland I recon if could go one of two ways Tuesday 1) we could see a day which turns cloudy with outbreaks of rain at times and only relatively warm or 2) we could see enough sunshine late morning into the afternoon which helps create that lift nesessary to produce clouds which start off as cumulus eventually becoming mature cumulonimbus towers.

By Wednesday we see the trough and developing low intensify and mature to the southwest of Ireland, this will enhance the southerly heat pump as well as draw cold air across the UK in the mid and upper levels, the perfect atmospheric thermal profile for storms to form, converging air flow at the surface will help form thunderstorms.

Eventually the deepening low will cross the UK, carve out a new trough and will bring us back to reality we’re all too familiar with

By Thursday night after what could be the most explosive of days with warmest temperatures, a cold front will sweep west to east, could bring quite the rains and wind, possibly bringing the warm spell to an end with a bang. Into Friday and while the front clears, much cooler air works in from the northwest.

Later Friday the GFS has a 990mb low crossing northern Scotland. This looks likely to bring cool, blustery, showery conditions and this will set the scene into at least the first half of the upcoming weekend.

GFS surface pressure chart courtesy of MeteoGroup

GFS surface pressure chart for Friday courtesy of MeteoGroup

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