Tropical Storm Debby Is Hammering Florida With Wind, Heavy Rains, Big Swells, Track Now For FL Landfall!

Tropical Storm Debby (Image courtesy of NOAA)

[warning] NEW RUN OF ECMWF NOW HAS DEBBY MAKING LANDFALL OR STALLING JUST OFF PANAMA CITY, FL [/warning]

Well it appears that Tropical Storm Debby might well just make a landfall between Appalachicola and Cross City, FL sometime tomorrow evening as it’s northeastward track continues and gets ever closer to the NW Florida coast. I can’t see this thing shifting west as it’s surely too far away for the ridge over the Plains to grab it and take it west.

It’s quite amazing really to see a general consenses of track forecasts including that of the National Hurricane Center shift from west towards S Louisiana and Texas to the northeast into Northwest Florida.

Currently at 60 mph, Debby is bringing ashore heavy swells with wave heights of 18 feet along some parts of the coast along with strong gusty winds and a ton of heavy, tropical rains which have brought 2 inch per hour rains into the Tampa-St Petes area. Upwards of 6 inches have fallen over parts of west-central Florida as the deep conveyer of moisture extending from the central Gulf piles in on Debby’s south and east side.

Shear from an upper low spinning over the northwest Gulf is pushing the bulk of Debby’s convection to the east of the centre. With her position, this is why there has been a lot of nasty weather impacting Florida since yesterday morning.

Heat Builds Over Rockies, Plains eventually into Midwest

As for the weather across the Lower 48. It’s another scorcher for the Rockies and Plains. Here are the highs seen yesterday.

Map courtesy of The Weather Channel

Today will be similar if not HOTTER with Denver likely to approach the all-time record of 105. If it reaches this it would be the hottest June day on record. While Hill City, KS was the US hot spot at 111 yesterday it may top that somewhere in eastern Colorado or western Kansas today.

The blowtorch through the next 4 days will intensify from Houston all the way to North Dakota. Houston, Dallas and Oklahoma City start their strong of 100-degree days which should last through Wednesday. I’m going for 104 in HOU, 106 in DFW & OKC with nights no cooler than 80. I said about a week ago that we could see at or near 110 in the Dakotas by the middle of this week and that still looks highly likely given that the ridge core will slide into the Northern Plains by Wednesday as the strong storm off Wash-Ore migrates east along the US-Canada border.

By Thursday, according to the european, we could see at least one if not more days above 100 for Minneapolis, Madison and Chicago with highs of 102-105.

The eastern trough will deepen over the next 48 hours and the ridge expands out West, this will lead to multiple very cool days for late June with highs possibly struggle to hit 70 by midweek in New York, perhaps even Philadelphia. These cool numbers will be accompanied by showers and storms.

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