More Systems To Bring Rain To UK Next Week, SE-Bound Cold Fronts Bring Dramatic Thunderstorms To Euro 2012

Written by on June 16, 2012 in Rest of Europe with 0 Comments

Thursday’s return to widespread UK rain according to this GFS precip forecast (Image courtesy of MeteoGroup)

As we kiss goodbye to the current system bringing a wet, windy and chilly night across Northern Ireland, parts of Scotland and Northern England, our eyes shift to the next system which will work into the Southeast of England late Sunday into Monday, this will bring a period of heavy rain to the Southeast while the rest of the UK should be largely fine with just isolated showers around.

Later Monday through Tuesday and much of Wednesday looks not too bad as we sit in between systems. We should see sun and showers rule between Monday and Wednesday afternoons and then comes the arrival of our next Atlantic low. This will spread rain in from the west accompanied with blustery conditions.

Following the departure of this low either later Thursday or Friday, the GFS surface chart shows a significant area of surface high pressure building in on the backside of the low towards next weekend, could this be a game changer? Unfortunately the ECMWF upper level chart isn’t playing ball as it shows a rather strong upper low parked over the UK despite the GFS surface high. Despite more sunshine and ultimately warmer temperatures, the cold upper environment associated with the upper trough and it’s cold pocket would instigate plenty of showers and thunderstorms due to the large temperature difference from surface and upper levels (known as the lapse rate). We really need upper level high pressure which warms the upper levels and helps surpress cloud development and encourages sinking air which heats up fast as it’s descends towards earth.

I alluded to in recent posts about my much hoped or anticipated flip of the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) from it’s current negative phase to a positive which could well support the return of ridging and warmer weather back across the UK but it’s reocovery from it’s tanking deep into negative is slower than earlier thought and so given the current look of the ECMWF charts and this, I have to admit the warm return doesn’t look likely through at least the 25th but as we see the westwards migration of the heat across the continent, it makes me wonder whether chance looms for the final week of the month.


While the active Atlantic flow with one low after the next crossing the UK, the leading cold fronts don’t top where the trough meets the eastern ridge. These cold fronts, seemingly harmless have swung southeast after bringing wet and blustery weather to the NW of Europe across France, Germany, the Alps and even into Italy and eastern countries and it is once they push into increasingly hot and humid air where they really do bring the most dramatic weather. Poland in recent days has marked the division between the colder air of the trough to the west and the increasingly hot and steamy air to the south and east but the most recent cold front has managed to work further east, cutting into the 90F air sizzingly over Ukraine. You know there is always going to be some wild lightning displays, torrential, flooding rains and potentially gusty winds when you work a cold front into hot, humid air. This was seen by many last night during the France v Ukraine match in Donetsk in eastern Ukraine as the match after only 5 minutes played, had to be abandoned due to dangerous lightning. Very heavy rain just worsened an already bad situation. The temperature at the start of the match was a hot 90F (32C).

According to the ECMWF this heat and the ridge backs westwards through next week and that means warmer weather for the more western venues of Euro 2012 across Poland after days of cooler, rainy weather.

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