Jubilee Weekend Is A Tail Of Two Halves

Written by on June 1, 2012 in United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

The much anticipated Jubilee weekend has arrived and and for many, the question is how’s the weather going affect our outdoor plans?

In short, we have a north-south split for Saturday with decent sunshine across northern and central areas of the UK but it will be cloudier down across the midlands and south with a chance of some scattered showers.

This ECMWF upper level chart shows shows cooler air and the trough spreading further and further south

Daytime highs should be mild at between 14-17C in Scotland, feeling fairly warm in the strong early June sun, 17-19C over central, eastern and southeast England while it should be a fairly warm 21-23C over parts of the west midlands, south Wales and interior southwest despite mostly cloudy skies.

As for Sunday, well unfortunately a well organised area of rain will spread up from the southwest off the Atlantic and should cover an area stretching from Northern Ireland southeastwards across the Irish Sea and down across Wales, the Midlands and across London and Kent. East and north of this front which basically marks the seperation between cool air dropping south via and trough and residual warmth from the same high which produced the glorious spell of summer warmth. This high is being kicked south and away from the UK and so daytime highs through a good part of next week looks surpressed. It will continue to remain dry and bright with decent sunny spells across northern England up through Scotland during Sunday but temperatures won’t reflect those of Saturday thanks to that reinforcing push of cooler air out of the north.

Temperatures underneath this heavy canopy of cloud and rain will hold at a brisk 9-11C, Even London where highs have regularly topped the low to mid 20s C will struggle to warm to 11C during Sunday afternoon during the pagant.

Looking ahead at next week and the trough looks to rule our weather pattern while all the heat and sunshine lurks to the south and west. The NAO’s return to a more negative phase following a positive suggests we’ll likely hold onto this cooler and more unsettled theme for at least the first 10 days of June, however I intend to provide some thoughts for the entire month ahead on Sunday which may see a return to warmer weather from the 15th onwards. I shall share some long range model forecasts with you as well as ensemble forecast charts for the NAO/AO which may show where the signal is going through midmonth.

Below is the precipitation forecast off the GFS for Saturday night through Sunday afternoon. Notice how the rain band shifts slightly north through Sunday morning, perhaps provising London with some lunchtime relief..

GFS Precip forecast for Saturday night!

 

GFS Precip forecast for Sunday morning!

 

GFS precip forecast for Sunday afternoon!

 

 

 

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