>Mark Vogan’s UK-Europe Summer 2012 Forecast Is Released!!

Written by on March 31, 2012 in Rest of Europe with 4 Comments


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Mark Vogan’s UK & Europe Summer 2012 Forecast

Warmer, Drier Than Normal Summer In Store For Spain, France, Extending Into UK If Spring Rains Are Sparse. Cooler, Wetter Early To Mid Summer For Central, Eastern Europe

Dry spring could lead to a significantly warm June, July over England which periodically extends up into Scotland and west into Ireland

The past 12 months have seen one of the driest periods on record from Spain to Yorkshire. This dry ground has helped produce record warmth and a persistency in drier, sunnier than normal conditions.

The overall winter season of 2011-12 has been generally warm over Western Europe while cold in the East. This setup has meant ridging in the west and a teleconnection trough in the east. It’s been a locked pattern which has supported continuation and worsening of the drought in west and cold and snowy in the east. 

There has been a clear relationship between these dry soils stretching from Spain to England and high pressure above. This very setup has brought near record warmth on Christmas Day 2011, February and of course record breaking warmth for Scotland in March 2012. My concern is that if we don’t see much rain through April and May over particularly the UK then we could be looking at a serious situation once the summer atmosphere kicks in.

Another Summer Like 2003, 2005, 2006 With Heat & Drought?

I believe we are overdue another warmer, drier summer here and the current setup would suggest just that.

I am going for a warm to much warmer than normal June, July over England and slightly warmer than normal across Scotland, Northern Ireland and Ireland.

Of course a wetter April and May could change this whole idea completely and in that case our summer may end up an average one with unsettled weather followed by inbetween sunny, warm, settled conditions.

It would take a lot of heavy, torrential and persistent rain to break the drought and I just don’t see that just now and therefore I do believe, high pressure will continue dominating and this may lead to a significant warm spell or heat wave in June and or July which may extend northwards into Scotland and westwards into Ireland.

The northward extent of a strong upper ridge of high pressure over the UK can be tough to forecast in advance and a jet stream flowing around the high, say over Scotland may lead to excessive rains which cause flooding.

While I see warm, sunny days often over England, I think Scotland and Ireland may see a 50/50 summer with periods of unsettled, maybe wild weather with warm, settled periods in between with potential for a period of heat wave conditions lasting 7-10 days.

A continuation of this dry year through spring makes one believe a heat wave is possible. Ireland and Scotland may get in on a heat wave too.

Meanwhile across Europe, while hot, dry weather persists over the western flank of the continent, a chilly trough drawing cold air may keep things cool, wet and dreary.

We live beside a big ocean and at high latitude and this makes long range forecasting very difficult. Unlike areas further south and landlocked which are suffering drought of similar magnitude could be have much greater liklihood of a hot, dry record breaking summer but for England, the current drought could grow stronger, become more extensive or it may reverse over the next couple of months.

I am going by current conditions and what the long term pattern has showed us so far. With the dominance and persistent return of stronger than normal high pressure, I believe this will continue and bring us an overall warmer, drier than normal summer across southern and central UK, while slightly wetter, cooler over the north. There will be periods of more unsettled, rainy weather even across the drought areas and warmer, drier periods across the north and if things continue the way they are, we may face a major heat wave and potential for record heat.



HIGH: 98° at Junction, TX
LOW: 6° at Clayton Lake, ME


HIGH: 58° (14.3°C) at Helens Bay (Co Down)
LOW: 30° (-1.2°C) at Shap (Cumbria)


HIGH: 51°
LOW: 37°

Thanks for reading.

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  1. dan says:

    >and he just did shut your non believers gobs,didn't he?? 😀

  2. Anonymous says:

    >Find another job mate……..

  3. Anonymous says:

    >Well, you didn't see the April washout coming, did you? Summer 2012 will be the worst on record with a max high of 19C some time in September. More record rain for May/Jul/Aug and record low average temperatures. Drought over within 21days. Don't give up your day job!

  4. cheryl says:

    >i hope what you say is true would b nice to get a proper summer this yr
    Cheryl. Glasgow

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