>Models Suggest Temps Near -40C/F In Southeast Europe In Coming Nights, Warmth Spreads Across USA

Written by on January 30, 2012 in Rest of Europe with 0 Comments

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Today’s Global Weather Headlines

Europe Latest

The Arctic Wolf Begins To Roar Across Europe As Temps Continue Falling

BREAKING: Snow flurries/showers are being reported across Southeast England, Aberdeenshire just now, are you seeing any.. Be sure to upload any snow photos to the Facebook page and they will get shown here!

Coldest Week of Winter So Far For UK/Low Countries

Daytime highs will struggle to 2-4C UK-wide through Thursday and perhaps freezing by late this week but factor in an easterly wind blowing generally 5-15mph will make it feel closer to -2 to -7C widely during the day.

The latest GFS 2 metre temperature forecast shows temps at night dipping to -11C in Paris and -8 or -9C in Amsterdam while the UK widely dips to between -5 and -10C. If conditions are good enough with crystal clear skies and no wind in a few of the cold hollows of England and the Highlands of Scotland given the cold air mass aloft, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a -15C low show up, however, the lack of snow may limit this depth of cooling.

Little precipitation is in the forecast this week across the UK due to massive high covering half of the Northern hemisphere.

Current Pattern Is Non-Favourable For Widespread UK Snowfall

This current setup, although very much cold enough, isn’t conducive for heavy snow. No it’s not because the air is too cold but more it’s too stable as a high pressure system dominates and therefore skies should be generally fair and settled albeit breezy out of the east.

It’s important to note that although the pattern overall isn’t good for ‘widespread’ snowfall, we are seeing it snow in places but you’ll find eastern areas (east of the Scottish Mountains/Pennines have greatest chance of snow as an increasingly cold wind blows off the continent, across the North Sea and across the UK, likely carrying snow showers across eastern shores. These will likely die out once reaching central areas. A slight covering is possible tonight from Kent to Caithness if moisture can get picked up as winds blow over the North Sea.

Eastern snow chances could increase as we progress through this week as I believe the temperatures over the western side of the continent grow increasingly colder with temps in Belgium and the Netherlands falling towards -10C even in Brussels and Amsterdam and perhaps near -17 or -18C in far inland areas of these countries. If winds can blow over to the UK from this intensity of cold, then I believe more pronounced snow showers may occur and thus bringing perhaps several inches to favoured areas up the eastern side of the UK. More intense bands of snow blowing in off the North Sea may also carry snow further west and like we saw in November/December 2010, parts of even the western Central Belt, over by Glasgow saw 6-8 inches pile up over a one week period all thanks to a strong and bitter east wind blowing off a very cold continent and across a still relatively warm North Sea.

The big difference between then and now is the North Sea is in a mid-winter state, a good deal colder and therefore, those snows we saw in 2010, we’re pretty exceptional..

UNCONFIRMED REPORTS SUGGEST 10 PEOPLE HAVE DIED FROM COLD ALREADY ACROSS EUROPE!

GFS FORECASTED 2M MIN TEMPS OVER NEXT 72 HRS

The GFS 2 metre temperature forecast for parts of southeast Europe has been incredible today with predicted lows pushing towards -40C/F. Very impressive depth of cold and if this happens which there’s nothing to suggest it can’t given the intensity of discharge coming out of Siberia, records are sure to fall widely across this region.

Check out these forecast lows….

BULGARIA -36C
UKRAINE -35C
SERBIA -32C
BOSNIA -26C

HEAVY SNOW OVER ALPS AND MOUNTAINS OF BALKANS AS MED SEA LOW DRAWS MOISTURE UP INTO COLD AIR

With a vast reservoir of very cold air covering a large area of Europe by midweek, a system developing and pushing north into Italy over the next 36 hours may bring yet more heavy snow to the Alps as well as over parts of Italy and eastwards into the Balkans. I’ll be interested to see how low the snow levels go and whether it reaches the coast.

The above chart shows the precipitation potential during Wednesday across Italy and surrounding areas.

Wintry weather finally reaches the UK
BBC

US Latest

Unusual January Warmth Spreads Across Lower 48 But One Must Keep Eye To Alaska!

This week is going to be another one of those balmy weeks of winter 2011-2012 across the Lower 48 with temps surging towards 30 above normal in areas of the Plains.

Just take a look at the below chart.

This Week

Now, while you my fret if your a snow and cold weather lover! don’t be and the reason is, take a take at the below chart.

Next Week

Also take a look at the below chart.
What’s Alaska’s frigid cold of this month got to do with us here in the Lower 48, you ask?
Well often, major cold waves for the Lower 48, often start off mild with major, bottled up cold over Alaska and if models in the medium to long range are correct, then we are expecting to see the dam (trough) over Alaska and northwest Canada break from this weekend onwards as a ridge builds up into Alaska, removing this frigid air.
When you drive a ridge up into Alaska, more often than not, that brutal air mass only goes one way, and that’s south, southeastwards into the Lower 48.
If my long rang predictions are correct and several others are too, then we’re looking at a much colder period during February and I have concerns about a major arctic outbreak mid-month as we have seen unusually cold weather up across the Last Frontier, so much so, this month may end up one of the coldest on record in Fairbanks with the coldest high since 2000 on Saturday of -42F. There have also been two lows in a row of -50F (-50 and -51F), not seen since 2006.
Models show a deepening eastern trough while blocking forms over top of NA, Greenland, trapping cold pools underneath. It’s worth noting the severity of cold that may be heading for the Lower 48.

THE WEATHER CHANNEL

Montana’s Chinook Winds Allow Unusual Winter Activities
ACCUWEATHER.COM

Warmth Surges in the Plains, Spreads East
ACCUWEATHER.COM

Another Burst of Warmth for Winter of 2011-2012
ACCUWEATHER.COM

Another Mild Surge to Impact the East by Midweek
ACCUWEATHER.COM

More Stormy Weather for Pacific Northwest
ACCUWEATHER.COM

Firefighters battle North Pole house fire in 60-below-zero temperatures
DAILY NEWS MINER

Image courtesy of Daily News Miner

Canada Latest

Snow squalls and harsh winds wallop Ontario
THE WEATHER NETWORK

Heavy snow piles up in Atlantic Canada
THE WEATHER NETWORK

Australia Latest

Better Late Than Never, Sydney Tops 30C On Monday

THE EXTREMES OF THE DAY

TODAY’S US EXTREMES
COURTESY OF ACCUWEATHER

HIGH: 81° at Fort Myers, FL
LOW: -17° at Land O Lakes, WI

TODAY’S UK EXTREMES
COURTESY OF THE MET OFFICE

HIGH: 51° (10.8°C) at Isles of Scilly
LOW: 21° (-6°C) at Shap (Cumbria)

TODAY’S EXTREMES HERE AT MY HOUSE

HIGH: 39°
LOW: 31°

Thanks for reading.
-Mark

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