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BREAKING WEATHER: THE AMERICAN MID-SOUTH IS UNDER THREAT FROM SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER THIS PM AND EVENING (MORE INFO BELOW)
NEW VOGAN’S VIEWS ON EUROPE & LONG RANGE VIDEO BELOW
Today’s Weather Headlines
NEW: Northern hemisphere snow returns to above normal
WEATHERBELL.COM
Europe Latest
Beautiful Sunday and Monday for most of Western Europe as high pressure returns, all change Wednesday with next batch of wind and rain
High Pressure brings beautiful sunshine for many Sunday-Monday
While a surface high pushes up from the southwest bringing more in the way of sunshine and less rain to much of the UK with only the odd shower over higher ground, it will be beautiful but remaining fairly cool but seasonal thanks to a northwesterly upper flow. Highs today and Monday will remain at around 5 or 6C across the north, 8 or 9C in south with easing winds into tonight and tomorrow which should help it feel less cool.
A low near Iceland will send wind and rain bearing fronts into UK-Ireland By Wednesday
FLOOD WARNING: DUE TO LONG FETCH SW FLOW, THE NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS MAY EXPERIENCE SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN WHICH WILL LEAD TO FLOODING
By Wednesday, though a low will remain well to the northwest of the UK, a front slowly progresses across Ireland and the UK, evetually reaching the low countries, this will bring a return to wind, rain and milder air with temps for all bumping back up above 10C.
Upwards of 100mm is expected across the northwest of Scotland, helped by orographic influence of the mountains but if you notice, the front and flow along it is coming from a long fetch SW flow. A warmer, moister direction and this suggests heavy rains and if prolonged enough and the front doesn’t move quickly, this will aid in piling up the rains up against the northwest Scottish Highlands. 100mm could end up being conservative. A similar setup, only aligned further south meant it was Cumbria’s mountains which saw this and lead to exceptional flooding. The good news is, this isn’t autumn when waters in which this southwest flow travelled over warmer Atlantic waters following the summertime but nonetheless, a long fetching southwest flow pointing into a mountainous area of the UK can lead to problems.
Following the southeast movement of the cold front down Britain will herald the arrival of colder air once again back out of a northwest direction Thursday-Friday.
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Latest Skiing Snow Forecast
BBC
Long Range Latest
Just think what a more pronounced drop could do and given the recent strat warming which is peaking now and the models suggestion of -AO/NAO, yes, we have plenty of winter left.
Yes, it’s certainly been a winter where patience has been required. I urge you to keep the faith.
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US Latest
Cold weather to ease (temporarily) even across the freezing Northern states as focus turns to the severe weather threat this week
A potentially serious weather situation will evolve later this PM and especially tonight across the Mid-South region as all the dynamics are coming together with a deepening trough with cold, dry air behind, warm, sub-tropical air in front and unusually high dew point air all meeting this cross-roads of instability.
This is unfortunately sure to spark strong and eventually severe thunderstorms as the atmosphere’s mixing, the strong jet and twisting and turning of the air columns will trsnition ordinary thunderstorms into supercells and these most likely will spawn tornadoes. If not, torrential rains, damaging winds and large hail will.
Large Tornado Outbreak Possible for Sunday Evening into Monday
FIRSTHANDWEATHER
VIDEO: The Set-Up for a Severe Weather Outbreak
ACCUWEATHER.COM
Severe Outbreak with Tornadoes Targets Ohio Valley, South
ACCUWEATHER.COM
The very cold air of the past few days gets erased tomorrow
Northeast Ice Threat Tonight Leads to a Mild Rain Monday
ACCUWEATHER.COM
National snowpack looking healthier than of late but unfortunately the stuff in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast (except New England) will be gone in next couple of days
Saturday was a cold day with highs in the 20s and 10s for many following a cold start and this morning was even colder with widespread single digits and teens and well below zero readings across New England and Maine especially, however, a deepening trough over the midsection of the country will pump warmer air up the East Coast from the Southeast and with highs returning to the 50s, that snow, especially the thinner 1-3 inches, will grow increasingly sloppy and slushy during Monday and may be gone by Tuesday if not Wednesday!
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THE EXTREMES OF THE DAY
TODAY’S US EXTREMES
COURTESY OF ACCUWEATHER
HIGH: 86° at Kingsville, TX
LOW: -30° at Clayton Lake, ME
TODAY’S UK EXTREMES
COURTESY OF THE MET OFFICE
HIGH: 55° (12.7°C) at Swanage (Dorset)
LOW: 31° (-0.3°C) at Loch Glascarnoch (Highland)
TODAY’S EXTREMES HERE AT MY HOUSE
HIGH: 44°
LOW: 38°
Thanks for reading.
-Mark
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