>UK enjoys high pressure next 2 days before more wind, rain and mild temps arrive, Severe Weather threatens American Mid-South tonight

Written by on January 22, 2012 in Rest of Europe with 0 Comments

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BREAKING WEATHER: THE AMERICAN MID-SOUTH IS UNDER THREAT FROM SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER THIS PM AND EVENING (MORE INFO BELOW)

NEW VOGAN’S VIEWS ON EUROPE & LONG RANGE VIDEO BELOW

Today’s Weather Headlines

NEW: Northern hemisphere snow returns to above normal
WEATHERBELL.COM

Europe Latest

Beautiful Sunday and Monday for most of Western Europe as high pressure returns, all change Wednesday with next batch of wind and rain

Sunny day across Scotland as surface high builds in for the next couple of days
(Photo courtesy of Mark Vogan)

High Pressure brings beautiful sunshine for many Sunday-Monday

While a surface high pushes up from the southwest bringing more in the way of sunshine and less rain to much of the UK with only the odd shower over higher ground, it will be beautiful but remaining fairly cool but seasonal thanks to a northwesterly upper flow. Highs today and Monday will remain at around 5 or 6C across the north, 8 or 9C in south with easing winds into tonight and tomorrow which should help it feel less cool.

A low near Iceland will send wind and rain bearing fronts into UK-Ireland By Wednesday

FLOOD WARNING: DUE TO LONG FETCH SW FLOW, THE NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS MAY EXPERIENCE SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN WHICH WILL LEAD TO FLOODING

This GFS precip chart off Meteogroup.com shows the long fetch sw moisture plume running along the cold front all the way from the Azores to Western Scotland. This warmer-sub-tropical direction can lead to much heavier and prolonged rains if the front moves slowly which it tends to when set up in this way.

By Wednesday, though a low will remain well to the northwest of the UK, a front slowly progresses across Ireland and the UK, evetually reaching the low countries, this will bring a return to wind, rain and milder air with temps for all bumping back up above 10C.

Upwards of 100mm is expected across the northwest of Scotland, helped by orographic influence of the mountains but if you notice, the front and flow along it is coming from a long fetch SW flow. A warmer, moister direction and this suggests heavy rains and if prolonged enough and the front doesn’t move quickly, this will aid in piling up the rains up against the northwest Scottish Highlands. 100mm could end up being conservative. A similar setup, only aligned further south meant it was Cumbria’s mountains which saw this and lead to exceptional flooding. The good news is, this isn’t autumn when waters in which this southwest flow travelled over warmer Atlantic waters following the summertime but nonetheless, a long fetching southwest flow pointing into a mountainous area of the UK can lead to problems.

Following the southeast movement of the cold front down Britain will herald the arrival of colder air once again back out of a northwest direction Thursday-Friday.

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Latest Skiing Snow Forecast
BBC

Long Range Latest

No wonder we’ve seen a hemisphere-wide warm start to winter except the Far East when looking at this chart. (off Dr Ryan Maue’s site). However that last gasp drop in AO has resulted in plenty of winter cold/snow for Canada/US, east/cnt Europe and Far East and actually aided in building HEMSIPHERE’s snowcover above normal (remember what it was like in Dec).

Just think what a more pronounced drop could do and given the recent strat warming which is peaking now and the models suggestion of -AO/NAO, yes, we have plenty of winter left.

Yes, it’s certainly been a winter where patience has been required. I urge you to keep the faith.

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US Latest

Cold weather to ease (temporarily) even across the freezing Northern states as focus turns to the severe weather threat this week

A potentially serious weather situation will evolve later this PM and especially tonight across the Mid-South region as all the dynamics are coming together with a deepening trough with cold, dry air behind, warm, sub-tropical air in front and unusually high dew point air all meeting this cross-roads of instability.

This is unfortunately sure to spark strong and eventually severe thunderstorms as the atmosphere’s mixing, the strong jet and twisting and turning of the air columns will trsnition ordinary thunderstorms into supercells and these most likely will spawn tornadoes. If not, torrential rains, damaging winds and large hail will.

Large Tornado Outbreak Possible for Sunday Evening into Monday
FIRSTHANDWEATHER

VIDEO: The Set-Up for a Severe Weather Outbreak
ACCUWEATHER.COM

Severe Outbreak with Tornadoes Targets Ohio Valley, South
ACCUWEATHER.COM

The very cold air of the past few days gets erased tomorrow

Northeast Ice Threat Tonight Leads to a Mild Rain Monday
ACCUWEATHER.COM

Yesterday’s high’s

This morning’s low’s

National snowpack looking healthier than of late but unfortunately the stuff in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast (except New England) will be gone in next couple of days

Saturday was a cold day with highs in the 20s and 10s for many following a cold start and this morning was even colder with widespread single digits and teens and well below zero readings across New England and Maine especially, however, a deepening trough over the midsection of the country will pump warmer air up the East Coast from the Southeast and with highs returning to the 50s, that snow, especially the thinner 1-3 inches, will grow increasingly sloppy and slushy during Monday and may be gone by Tuesday if not Wednesday!

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THE EXTREMES OF THE DAY

TODAY’S US EXTREMES
COURTESY OF ACCUWEATHER

HIGH: 86° at Kingsville, TX
LOW: -30° at Clayton Lake, ME

TODAY’S UK EXTREMES
COURTESY OF THE MET OFFICE

HIGH: 55° (12.7°C) at Swanage (Dorset)
LOW: 31° (-0.3°C) at Loch Glascarnoch (Highland)

TODAY’S EXTREMES HERE AT MY HOUSE

HIGH: 44°
LOW: 38°

Thanks for reading.
-Mark

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