>Warmest Christmas Day on record for Northern Ireland, Winds top 100 mph over N. Scotland, White Christmas for W. Texas while it’s bare across N. Plains

Written by Mark Vogan on December 25, 2011 in Rest of Europe with 0 Comments

I Would like to Wish You All

Hope You Have a Joyful Day With Your Freinds & Family

– Mark

In Today’s Blog

Latest UK-Europe Discussion @ #UK-EUROPE
INTERESTING (BREIF) SNOWFALL/COLD TEMPERATURE CLIMATOLOGY OF MY LENNOXTOWN HOME AND THE PAST TWO ARCTIC-LIKE WINTER’S FOR THE UK

Mark’s Christmas Messege & January Forecast

Includes ideas for the USA also!

Since we haven’t seen that crucial shift to a negative NAO and AO, then we continue to see an active zonal storm-pattern across the mid-latitudes. The cold that we have seen has been ocean modified with little in the way of Arctic air getting pushed south due to the stronger than normal polar vortex over the pole.

Thanks to a trough over the North Atlantic and very cold air draining off Greenland with some of the Atlantic lows tapping this air mass, this has allowed a few short-lived cold spells across Ireland and the UK, however, in the past week, the jet has tuned much more flat-lined zonal and therefore Atlantic low pressure circulations have not tapped this cold pool.

Looking ahead

We continue to await the grand shift to colder here in the UK-Ireland as well as across much of the United States and the mid-latitudes of Asia. Signs are starting to show warming of the stratosphere over Asia which is shifting the coldest pool of air across to the Greenland side of the pole, what does this mean? Well, that shift of the most intense Arctic cold pool available in all of the hemisphere shows what could be achieved if we were to see a large-scale pole-wide stratospheric warming event and I am hoping to see that encompass the entire North Pole region. This would transfer warmth from the Central Atlantic northwards up over Greenland, splitting that intense polar vortex into 2, 3 even 4 seperate pieces and it’s crucial that we see a warm pool set up to the west of the UK as this would send one of those 3 or 4 pieces of truely bitter cold air our way.

I believe, it will be a process which is gradual through the first 2 weeks of January across others parts of the world before reaching us. Parts of western Asia/far east Europe & Scandinavia as well as Western North America be first to see the true Arctic air before migrating eastwards over N.A and westwards over Europe. That makes me believe a January 15th through perhaps early February is the time we fight the harshest of what could still be a bad winter here.

As stated in my video, many great UK winters of the 1960s and 70s started warm, wet and stormy, lasting through Christmas and even New Year, then turning dramatically.

Of course I also stated my concern for February and March and I believe repeat cold/snowy periods will hit well into March with periods of milder Atlantic air in between.

Europe Latest

Winds clock 101 mph over Shetland Isles while Northern Ireland experiences warmest Christmas Day on record, 3rd Warmest for UK

A high of 14.3C (57.7F) was recorded in County Down – the mildest Christmas Day on record for Northern Ireland.

The temperature was recorded in Murlough, where the previous record was 13C – most recently recorded in 1988.

It was a remarkable 15.1C (59.1F) at Aberdeen Dyce this afternoon. This was only 0.8C off a UK all-time record high for Christmas Day.

Winds of up to 101mph recorded in the Northern Isles
BBC

Near miss! We were just 1C away from the warmest Christmas Day EVER
DAILY MAIL

Past Christmases here at my house

I have lived in this house for 3 years past in May and each Christmas I have taken an image looking northwest from my home office here each Christmas morning at roughly the same time and of the same angle overlooking the Campsie Fells to the northwest.

As you can see from the below photos I have taken, what stands out is the brilliantly snowy scene we have enjoyed with cold, crisp winter air to breathe in the past two Christmases (2009, 2010). This year is very different with a completely different weather pattern with an Atlantic system over us for Christmas 2011, bringing strong, gusty and warm westerly winds, periods of heavy rain and temps above 10C (50F).