>All eyes turn to next Atlantic storm which will impact all of Ireland and UK late Monday-Tuesday, Monster brewing for late Thursday through Friday with backside snowfall reaching South of England

Written by on December 11, 2011 in Rest of Europe with 1 Comment

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Today’s Weather Headlines

Europe Latest

All eyes turn to next Atlantic storm which will impact all of Ireland and UK late Monday-Tuesday, Monster brewing for late Thursday through Friday with backside snowfall reaching South of England

The first system appears to take aim at mainly Northern Ireland, Scotland and northern England with gales or severe gales and a period of heavy rain with flooding possible in areas, particularly as the leading edge of the cold front sweeps through.

However, the second system which will arrive for Ireland early Thursday and continue to intensify into Friday is of major concern at this time. Ireland and the southern provinces of Northern Ireland may find widespread winds in excess of 75 mph (hurricane-force) with areas easily topping 90 to 100 mph. The west coast and up by Donegal, you may experience extreme winds beyond 120 mph, this could be one of the storms of a generation IF the models continue to hold onto such a powerful low.

NOTE: The deeper a low is, the stronger the winds blow

Now, while Ireland and southern Northern Ireland get blasted by potentially devastating wind speeds, quite possibly comparable to a category 3 hurricane, Irish Sea shipping will basically shutdown as winds blowing as hard as they could well do, would be too dangerous to be on board ships and as well as that, seas themselves would be far too rough.

Under the gun for very disruptive and destructive winds will be ALL OF WALES and the majority of England. Anywhere from CUMBRIA to WARWICKSHIRE could see widely 75 to 100 mph winds as well as the South coast.

Mark Vogan’s detailed look at this week’s wild weather situation

I MUST STRESS THAT THE CURRENT INFORMATION IS BASED UPON THE CURRENT MODELS AND IT’S A CERTAINTY THAT THINGS WILL CHANGE WHETHER IT BE THE INTENSITY OF THE STORM AS IT CROSSES OR IT’S TRACK, A CHANGE IN TRACK, IE, WHERE THE CENTRE IS POSITIONED AS IT CROSSES WILL MEAN THE AREA WHERE STRONGEST WINDS STRIKE WILL LIKELY ALTER AS FRIDAY IS A LONG WAY OUT STILL

What the GFS is pointing to….

The above map is for the late Monday through Tuesday system which at this time appears to have a 954 to 958mb low crossing just off the north coast of Scotland. A track which is slightly north of last Thursday’s system would suggest strongest winds are NORTH of the populated Central Belt of Scotland and though windy further south, nothing nearly as strong as what Dumfries and Galloway and Cumbria experienced last week. From the Midlands south, it may be an average windy day here.

From Donegal to Antrim, strong to severe gales will cause problems but nothing out of the ordinary I don’t think. A typical winter storm for a region use to windy weather.

CONCERN FOR LATE WEEK

Unfortunately, for not only Donegal across to Antrim, but the majority of Ireland with the Atlantic coast bearing the brunt, early Thursday through early Friday may be a different story and nothing ‘typical’ when it comes to how deep the low is crossing over the north coast of Northern Ireland. Winds will be disructive, scary and likely very destructive IF the models are anything to go by right now. I don’t mean to scare but mainly pointing at POTENTIAL risk here.

By late Thursday, while it remains exceptionally windy throughout Ireland, the focus shifts east across the Irish Sea to Wales and much of England where widespread damaging winds start to impact.

This storm actually deepens as it pushes out into the North Sea with pressures dropping from 944 over Livingston, West Lothian to 942 out over the North Sea which could cause problems both for shipping as well as over the Low Countries. As it moves east and winds turn to a more north, northeasterly direction I wonder if and how much snow may fall and how far south the precipitation and snowline goes.

Keep in mind that this intensity of storm as it’s centre pushes east, would have more influence as pushing colder air further south than a weaker storm and thus I wouldn’t rule out the possibility of snow falling as far south as London or even Kent.

A lot can and will change and I shall try my very best to keep you as updated as possible. More on this tomorrow.

US Latest
Northeast experiences coldest morning since March
Lows this morning
Caribou, ME 8
Bradford, PA 10
AccuWeather @ State College, PA 15
Binghamton, NY 16
Albany, NY 17
Hartford, CT 23
ACCUWEATHER.COM
ACCUWEATHER.COM
THE EXTREMES OF THE DAY
TODAY’S US EXTREMES
COURTESY OF ACCUWEATHER
HIGH: 83° at Fort Myers, FL
LOW: -13° at West Yellowstone, MT
TODAY’S UK EXTREMES
COURTESY OF THE MET OFFICE
HIGH: 52° (11.1°C) at Isles of Scilly
LOW: 27° (-3°C) at Frittenden (Kent)
TODAY’S EXTREMES HERE AT MY HOUSE
HIGH: 47°
LOW: 39°

Thanks for reading.
-Mark

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  1. Anonymous says:

    >Thanks Mark for this roundup! What about the prediction for the snow leading up to Christmas? Still on track?

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