>Bahamas likely to bear brunt of Powerful Hurricane Irene over next 36-hours as she grows into dangerous Cat 3 storm

Written by on August 24, 2011 in Rest of Europe with 0 Comments

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*****I shall be on the road all day Thursday but please visit the blog Facebook page and LIKE it for regular updates and important information on Hurricane Irene’s latest!****

In Today’s Blog

#UNITED STATES
IN-DEPTH WRITE UP ON CONSEQUENCES TO NORTHEAST
Hurricane Irene May Threaten Category 5 Status Over the shallower warm waters of the northern Bahamas, may struggle to weaken on approach to NC

#BRITISH ISLES-EUROPE
Appologies to folks in the UK for no updates, Due to extreme weather threatening US, I haven’t been able to look at the UK weather, I’m scheduling new in-depth look at UK & Europe on Friday!

SPECIAL COVERAGE OF HURRICANE IRENE 2011
THE BAHAMAS NOW AT MERCY OF INTENISIFYING CATEGORY 3 IRENE, CAROLINAS & I-95 CORRIDOR SHOULD BE CONCERNED BY THIS, NOT COMPLACENT!

AS OF 5PM ADVISORY FROM NHC
 …DANGEROUS HURRICANE IRENE HITTING THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS HARD…

BETTER TO BE PREPARED THAN BE CAUGHT OUT AND KILLED, IT IS PREVENTABLE!

CURRENT STATUS AS OF 5PM ADVISORY

PRESSURE: 953 mb
MAX WINDS: 120 mph
MAX GUSTS: 150 mph
DIRECTION: NW at 12 mph
LOCATION: 30 miles E,SE of Long Island, Bahamas

Mark shares concerns over potential for major damage from Hattaras to Cape Cod. Nasty combo of Cat 1-2 hurricane verses saturated soils throughout I-95 corridor.

Latest Details on Irene From National Hurricane Center

HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011
1100 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2011

IRENE HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING.  THE EYE HAS BECOME
MORE DISTINCT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IT IS SURROUNDED BY CLOUD
TOPS COLDER THAN -70 DEGREES CELSIUS.  BOTH AIR FORCE AND NOAA
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAVE BEEN INVESTIGATING IRENE THIS
MORNING.  THE AIR FORCE PLANE MEASURED A PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL
WIND OF 112 KT JUST BEFORE 1200 UTC…AND THIS SUPPORTED THE
UPGRADE TO A 100-KT CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE AT THAT TIME.  SINCE
THAT TIME THE NOAA AIRCRAFT REPORTED 115 KT AT 750 MB.  THE
PRESSURE HAS REMAINED AROUND 956 MB…AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY
ESTIMATE REMAINS 100 KT.

THE OUTFLOW HAS BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE HURRICANE AND IRENE
WILL BE MOVING OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 29 DEGREES
CELSIUS DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.  THESE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS
FAVOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION AND THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST
CALLS FOR IRENE TO REACH CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH WITHIN 24 HOURS.
AFTER THAT TIME…SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN WIND SPEEDS ARE LIKELY DUE
TO EYEWALL REPLACEMENTS.  THE UW-CIMSS OBJECTIVE SECONDARY EYEWALL
FORMATION TECHNIQUE SHOWS A VERY HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF THAT OCCURRING
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE AND THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING OVER
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER WATERS BY 96 HOURS.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
GRADUAL WEAKENING…HOWEVER IRENE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A LARGE AND
POWERFUL HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

AIRCRAFT FIXES DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS INDICATE THAT IRENE HAS MADE
THE EXPECTED TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST…WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF
305/10. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING AND THE
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST 2-3
DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME…THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER OR NOT
IRENE CONTINUES ON A NORTH-NORTHEAST HEADING OR TURNS BACK TOWARD
THE NORTH AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS REMAIN ALONG THE WEST SIDE
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND SHOW A TRACK OVER OR VERY CLOSE TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE UKMET AND NOGAPS ARE ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE
AND KEEP THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WELL OFFSHORE. GIVEN THE TYPICAL
MODEL AND OFFICIAL TRACK ERRORS…BOTH SCENARIOS ARE VIABLE OPTIONS
AT THIS TIME…AND USERS ARE ONCE AGAIN REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON
SPECIFIC FORECAST POINTS THREE TO FIVE DAYS DOWNSTREAM. THE TVCA
CONSENSUS AND THE EXPERIMENTAL HURRICANE FORECAST IMPROVEMENT
PROJECT CONSENSUS WERE RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC
FORECAST. THE UPDATED NHC TRACK HAS BEEN NUDGED EASTWARD AT 96 AND
120 HOURS AND LIES BETWEEN THOSE TWO CONSENSUS AIDS.

Latest Videos

Latest News from the Networks

Irene Upgraded to Major Category 3 Hurricane as It Nears East Coast
FOX NEWS

Irene forces evacuations from remote N.C. island
CBS NEWS

Irene strengthens to a Category 3 hurricane
CNN

The Northeast from ‘west of I-95’ to Atlantic Coast Should Be Concerned About Irene and Start Preps now

Hurricane Irene: Major Northeast Threats
THE WEATHER CHANNEL

Northeast Faces Irene’s Heavy Rain, Damaging Winds
ACCUWEATHER.COM

In Other News

THE DAY AFTER THE QUAKE THAT SHOCK THE ENTIRE US EAST COAST

In Mineral, Va, Sudeen Fame at Earthquake’s Epicenter
NEW YORK TIMES

‘Hey East Coast, the entire West Coast is mocking you right now’
NBC NEWS

A day after quake, Washington awakens to closures
WASHINGTON POST

5.8 Magnitude Earthquake Disrupts East Coast Transportation
FOX NEWS

Search for Hidden Damage After U.S. East Coast Quake
FOX NEWS

Latest on Southern Plains Heatwave/Drought 2011

Houston’s Forecast Not Good, It’s Getting Hotter, Still No End In Sight to 100-Degree Days!

Heat watch: Temperatures are going to go up, if you can believe it
HOUSTON CHRONICLE

THE EXTREMES OF THE DAY
TODAY’S EXTREMES HERE AT MY HOUSE
HIGH: 62
LOW: 52

Thanks for reading.
-Mark

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