>31 May, 2011

Written by on May 31, 2011 in Rest of Europe with 0 Comments

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TODAY’S TOP WEATHER STORIES
On Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan
 

Image Courtesy of the Met Office

Driest Spring On Record in the UK?
AccuWeather.com
 
The AccuWeather.com 2011 Summer Forecast
AccuWeather.com
 
Coldest May on record for Darwin
THE AGE
 
TODAY’S WEATHER ACROSS AMERICA By Mark Vogan
 
Another Hot, Humid day across the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, Stormy for Great Lakes

The upper level ridge remains strong and punishing across an area stretching all the way from the Plains to New England today with the trough leaning and forcing energy over top and into the Great Lakes where there is a risk of thunderstorms becoming strong to severe over the Great Lakes. We’re seeing an area of low 90s throughout much of the Ohio Valley with even a corridor of mid-90s stretching from Raleigh up through Richmond, Washington, Baltimore and Philadelphia with dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s. Combine this heat with the humidity and reelfeels rise into the 100s creating a dangerous mix for outdoor activity. 

Special US Video Forecast

Note the rocketing afternoon temperatures throughout the east in the map above and the rising, juicy humidity within this increasingly hot air mass.

Below is a graphic provided by AccuWeather which shows where the severe thunderstorm risk is for today.

Below is the severe thunderstorm risk for areas further east and over the I-95 corridor…

TODAY’S WEATHER ACROSS UK & EUROPE
By Mark Vogan
 
Central/eastern Europe roasts while a trough sends a brief shiver down the spine of Britain ahead of late week roast!
 
SCOTLAND TO SEE FRESH BAND OF RAIN MOVE IN TONIGHT, REMAINS UNSETTLED TOMORROW, BUT THINGS GO UP UP UP FROM THERE!!!
 
Don’t be worrying if you’ve watched your forecast on TV this evening to hear rain moving in across western areas of Scotland with heavy and persistent rains over Argyll, Lochaber and the NW Highlands. Yes another short wave trough is driving down over the UK and into France, pulling chillier air down from the north in the upper levels. This has really dented those toasty temperatures of recent days across much of France as well as the Low Countries of Belgium and Holland.
 
Over the next 24 hours, heavy, thundery showers will develop across a large swath of central Europe from Paris to Berlin down into the Alpine regions of Austria and Switzerland. Where the sun is out and prolonged, temperatures, like today should rise towards 30C. It reached 32C at Berlin, Germany, 30C at Warsaw, Poland, 31C at Kiev, Ukraine, 25C at Moscow and even 31C at Volgograd, Russia. Thanks to the presence of the trough drilling over the UK and into northern France through today, this forced the core of high pressure eastwards awau from the north of France, allowing a region from central Germany to Moscow roast beneath abundant sunshine and well above normal temperatures.
 
As for the UK again, despite tonight and tomorrow remaining unsettled over the UK with yet more impulses of wet weather and cloud, we will see that trough get far enough south and down over southern France and Spain, where it cuts itself off from the main westerly steering flow. By doing so, this cold pocket of air will spin on it’s own over Spain and what we’re going to see from Wednesday into Thursday is high pressure build north into the UK from the Bay of Biscay and as it does so, it will force very warm, summerlike air all the way up into the north of Scotland. Between Thursday and into Friday, the high grows stronger. Because it’s parked directly over central England, many areas will see little wind, abundant sun and this will suppoert strong surface heating. I am looking at an almost unbroken 22C pool of air blanketing the UK with 24C or higher in the favoured hot spots ranging from the urban heat islands of Greater London, Manchester and Glasgow to the sheltered sun-trap of the Highland Glens where it could get surprisingly ‘hot’ away from both the cooling sea influence and where air can trap and heat further than surrounding areas.

I have included the european model upper level map interpretation (below) through Friday to show you the progression of the trough into southern France/Spain and the building of the high over the UK.

Upper Level Wednesday
Upper Level Thursday
Upper Level Friday

WEATHER TALK MIDDLE EAST & ASIA
By Mark Vogan
 
Deserts of Middle East Heating Up, 50C readings return to Pakistan and high starts it’s northward journey towards Sahara!
 
Mohinjodaro, Pakistan scorches at 50C or 122F on Monday. Today’s Highs topped ‘at least’ 43C in Baghdad, Iraq, 48C at Kuwait City
 
SIGNS OF THE SUB-TROPICAL HIGH MIGRATING TO POSITION OF SAHARA DESERT?
 
It’s getting to that time of the year when I’m seeing more and more 45C highs rather than upper 30 to low 40C highs over central Algeria. Though it’s a slow process, pressure heights are beginning to strengthen further north, indicative of the changing season across Africa. In order to get the African wave train to a latitude level with the Cape Verde Islands and conducive for tropical storm and hurricane development in the tropical Atlantic the upper level ridge must push north to a position directly over the Sahara Desert. Since April, this region has been baking beneath the same high which will be over the Sahara in the coming weeks. It’s been roating the surface of the Atlantic, heating it up, but sooner rather than later, this high will move north and following it on it’s bsouthern boundary, will be the low pressure belt and thunderstorm belt. The dry season will soon end across the Sahel and Sub-Sahara and in the next few weeks, the west to east thunderstorm train will lift north from the equator over the arid Sahel, bringing them the end of the dry season and start to the wet season. This process appears to be commencing with 45C highs and stronger heights now over Algeria and the Sahara rather than Sahel. Notice in the map below for today, provided by the European model that the strongest heights are centered over Algeria as a trough pushes south from the eastern Mediteranean.
 

The map below representing Friday (June 3), shows the core of heat (shown in the purple) shifting from Pakistan and NW India across to the Deserts of the Middle East. This may provide some 50C highs over Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.

   
WHAT’S REACHING TODAY’S BLOGS?
 
A Band of Severe Storms Cascades across Great Lakes and Northeast
Henry Margusity, AccuWeather

Heat Fueling Some Severe Weather
Joe Lundburg, AccuWeather

Chance of Severe Storms Tomorrow
PhillyWeather.net 

THE EXTREMES OF THE DAY

TODAY’S US EXTREMES
COURTESY OF ACCUWEATHER

HIGH: 104 degrees at Laredo, TX
LOW: 19 degrees at Berthoud Pass, CO

TODAY’S UK EXTREMES
COURTESY OF THE MET OFFICE

HIGH: 66 degrees (18.9C) at St James Park (Central London)
LOW: 27 degrees (-2.7C) at Braemar (Aberdeenshire)

TODAY’S GLOBAL EXTREMES
COURTESY OF THE UNIVERSITY OF COLOGNE

HIGHEST

49C (120F) at Illizi, Algeria (Africa)
48C (118F) Kuwait City, Kuwait (Asia)
47C (117F) at Hafar al Batin, Saudi Arabia (Asia)
37C (98F) at Washington DC, USA (North America)

LOWEST

-73C (-99F) at Vostok Station, Antarctica
-35C (-31F) at Summit Camp, Greenland

TODAY’S EXTREMES HERE AT MY HOUSE 
 
HIGH: 56 degrees
LOW: 32 degrees (Slight Frost)
 
Thanks for reading.
-Mark

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