>7 May, 2011

Written by on May 7, 2011 in Rest of Europe with 0 Comments

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TODAY’S TOP WEATHER STORIES
On Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan

Homes in ruins: Nathan Moore, left, Steve Richardson, centre, and Ronald Moore check on neighbours in Big Boy Junction near Finley, Tennessee

Four million people at risk as record breaking floods sweep Mississippi Delta
DAILY MAIL

Residents brace for more flooding as Mississippi River swells
CNN

TODAY’S WEATHER ACROSS UK & EUROPE By Mark Vogan

The warm, soupy thunderstorm harnessing environment will depart UK airspace within 24 hours replacing it with cool, Atlantic air

After an overnight and day of sunshine and continental style warmth & humidity, this sparked night and day long showers and thunderstorms which moved southwest to northeast throughout last night and today. In between those cells, it was sunny and warm with temperatures tipping the 23-25C range across the south. Another band of showers and storms will advance eastwards across the UK tonight and into tomorrow morning and this will ultimately shove the warm, sticky air that’s been transported north from Spain over the past 24/36 hours thanks to the large upper low to the west off Ireland and the large upper level ridge centered over Germany. The advancement of this new band of precipitation which will likely fall heavily in areas will mark the beginning to a new weather pattern which takes us all into the new week. The upper low will win as it pushes eastwards and brings that cooler, more refreshing maritime Atlantic air back across British airspace, sending the warm, humid air eastwards.

Tomorrow will be a rainy or showery day for most with pretty much everywhere seeing a trim back from today’s mid-20s C over the south of England and low 20s C which covered pretty much everywhere else that is away from the sea. Yes, even up here in Scotland, the air was warm feeling and made to feel warmer thanks to a mugginess which sparked some heavy, thundery, hail bearing showers across the Glasgow area this afternoon.

TODAY’S WEATHER ACROSS AMERICA By Mark Vogan

TROUGH TO DROP OUT OF GULF OF ALASKA INTO WEST, EXPANDING RIDGE OVER PLAINS/OHIO VLY. STORM FORMS IN BETWEEN OVER W. TEX/OKLA SPELLING TROUBLE 

Taking a ‘European’ tour of the developing upper pattern across the US over the days ahead and what that may translate to on the ground

As you can see from today’s upper-level map (above) provided by the European, we see a ‘kink’ in an east-southeast upper-level flow across the country just before the jet reaches Victoria, BC. Heat is clearly building to the east of the Rockies today and pumping 90s throughout Texas and Oklahoma with a pocket of 100s over central and north Texas, even south-central OK. We saw the 100-degree heat core centered over Arizona the past several days but with the advancing trough way to the north, this is pushing that core to the east of the Rockies and is evident in this afternoon’s temperatures over Texas and Oklahoma. The Desert Southwest saw Phoenix reach 101 and Las Vegas 96 yesterday. 

Today will mark the last of the recent hot days across the Desert Southwest as you can see from tomorrow’s upper pattern (above) that the ‘kink’ has now developed a trough that’s dipping into the Pacific Northwest, this reacts downstream with the core of heat not only shifting to heat core to the eats of the Rockies but it’s forcing hotter air over Mexico northwards. Heights and temps rise way up into the N. Plains.

The above map is for Monday and this clearly shows the trough really deepening and digging into the Great Basin. This southward drop in a deepening trough is bringing very cool air with it while it’s forcing the opposite further east. By Monday afternoon while 15 to 20 degree below normal temps cover the heart of the Rockies and Great Basin, we see 15 to 20 above normal over the Plains and this sets up the tight temperature graduent not too unlike the set up we saw back on Tuesday and Wednesday, April 26-27th.

The above map shows Tuesday’s upper-level situation and we can see an intensifying upper low off the New England/Maritimes coast and this will present the New England and Northeast rect)|utmcmd=(none); __utmb=150635w days of weather by this point next week while the blowtorch continuing across the Plains.

Unfortunately, to add a further ingredient to the volatile atmospheric environment in place across the heart of the country, there is the presence of a surface high over Florida which will produce southwest surface winds, pulling humid air into the very hot stuff across the Southern Plains which will add fuel to the developing fire!

By this stage, a storm system will have developed to the lee of the Rockies with a cold front aligned along the thermal boundary which seperates the warm from cold. The howlling northwest flow aloft, the hot, dry south flow blowing up from the Mexican plateau and a northwesterly surface flow of warm, moist air out of the Gulf could all combine in the varying altitudes of the atmosphere to produce rotation of thunderstorms which fire up along the front and this would indicate supercell thunderstorms.

Stay tuned for the latest on this weather situation right here as it unfolds.

VAGARIES OF THE WEATHER
INDIA & SUB-CONTINENTAL ASIA WEATHER
BY RAJESH KAPADIA

Monsoon information on Pakistan:

The South-West Monsoon reaches Pakistan towards the beginning of July and establishes itself by the middle of the month. The strength of the monsoon current increases gradually form June to July; it then remains steady, and starts retreating towards the end of August, though occasionally, it continues to be active even in September.

Southern Pakistan, including Karachi, I feel, basically gets its rainfall when

1. An UAC forming over Central India travels westwards (most of them in July/august)

2. If a system forms in the Arabian Sea, and tracks northwards towards the Pakistan coast (mostly in June).

3. If, we find the axis of the Monsoon trough lingering for a longer period of time with its western end over Upper Sindh region.

The Northernmost regions are not directly “in touch” with the SWM, and actually get their monsoon moisture only when the western end of the monsoon axis shifts to the upper most western regions, adding extra moisture to the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), referred to as the monsoon.

It was this phenomena, and the dipping of the westerly jet streams, that bought the flooding to the region on 26th – 31st July last year.See attached Diagram of the period.

Monsoon information on Nepal:

As I know the monsoon season in Nepal is between June and August. The weather is hot and wet at times. It rains almost everyday with occasional thunderstorms in the evening.

I think that the monsoon is one of the very best times to travel in Nepal if you want to see the true culture, way and beauty of life in the Himalaya.


But, many people get put off travel to Nepal during the monsoon.



Sure, you probably will not see the coveted snow capped peaks of the Himalayas, but the rewards of getting a bit wet and experiancing the Himalayan thunder is worth it. Its a touch of good humour to sit out the down pours and your camera to capture the heart and soul of Nepal.


The monsoon itself is very much the life blood of both urban and rural Nepal. Life here revolves around the arrival and departure of the annual three month deluge.

In the event of the monsoon trough,along its axis, getting stuck along the Himalayas, there can be very heavy rains along the Terai plains, and most of the river sources get torrential rains leading to flooding.

WEATHER TALK AFRICA & MIDDLE EAST
By Mark Vogan

First 49C shows up across African Sahel yesterday while multiple 47sC show up today

Current Upper-level Pattern across Africa

WHAT’S REACHING TODAY’S BLOGS?

The Heat Is On, The Storms Will Be
Frank Strait, AccuWeather

Forecast for Sunday, May 8, 2011
Philly Weather.com

WHAT’S ON TODAY’S WEATHERBELL BLOGS?

Spring damage approaching top ten hurricane season total
Joe Bastardi’s Blog, Weatherbell.com

The Great Floods of 1927 and 2011
Joe D’Aleo’s Blog, Weatherbell.com

THE EXTREMES OF THE DAY

TODAY’S US EXTREMES
COURTESY OF ACCUWEATHER

HIGH: 106 degrees at Laredo, TX
LOW: 25 degrees at Bellemont, AZ

TODAY’S UK EXTREMES
COURTESY OF THE MET OFFICE

HIGH: 78 degrees (25.4C) at Weybourne (Norfolk)
LOW: 42 degrees (5.4C) at Altnaharra (Sutherland)

TODAY’S EXTREMES HERE AT MY HOUSE

HIGH: 65 degrees
LOW: 53 degrees

Thanks for reading.
-Mark

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