>29 April, 2011

Written by on April 29, 2011 in Rest of Europe with 0 Comments

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TODAY’S TOP WEATHER STORIES
On Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan

CONTINUED SPECIAL COVERAGE OF THE DEVASTATED AMERICAN SOUTH
LATEST DEATH TOLL: 342 (Check out the Facebook page for the latest updates!)

President Barack Obama tours a destroyed neighborhood in Tuscaloosa, Ala., on Friday, April 29. “I’ve never seen devastation like this,” he said. (Saul Loeb / AFP – Getty Images)

Latest Stories from the Networks

Twister deaths now at 318, worst since 1932
NBC NEWS 

Picking Up Pieces After Devastating Tornadoes
THE WEATHER CHANNEL

Obama Tours Storm-Wracked Alabama as Survivors Pick Up Pieces
FOX NEWS

Tornado Paths From Space
THE WEATHER CHANNEL

SOME BACKGROUND TO THE SCIENCE & MORE!

Over 300 dead in historic tornado outbreak; one violent EF-5 tornado confirmed
Jeff Masters Wunderground Blog

First EF-5 Tornado Declared in Wednesday’s Horrific Outbreak
ACCUWEATHER.COM

Day of Twisters, Why Was Death Toll So High?
ACCUWEATHER.COM

Tornado path over northwest Alabama. (Image credit: NASA/Modis)

Tornado path over Tuscaloosa. (Image credit: Google Earth/Geoeye)

TODAY’S WEATHER ACROSS AMERICA By Mark Vogan

Big Snows across N. Plains, Relief across Deep South as front exists Eastern Seaboard

Short and sweet ideas…

High pressure has finally arrived to the storm ravaged Deep South and the devastating front has finally pushed off the Atlantic coast and sunshine replaces storm clouds.

The atmosphere is a lot cooler now that the front has passed through and a modified Canada air mass is now in control of Southern airspace.

Unfortunately, another storm lurks for the early part of next week but, though storms are likely, it won’t be anything like what we’ve just seen. At the end of the day, it would be exceptionally difficult for any weather to match what just occured.

With the new storm forming and across the Rockies, heavy snow and a fresh surge of cold Canadian origin air flows in on the backside flow out of the northwest!

More tomorrow!

TODAY’S WEATHER ACROSS UK & EUROPE By Mark Vogan

A Windy, Warm and Sunny Weekend throughout the UK. Persistent High Pressure portrays a Warm May ahead!

East winds may be strong enough to raise high wind warnings on north-south facing bridges such as the Forth and Tay Road Bridges but high and pressure heights are strong enough overhead for most places to still hit 17 to 21C despite the wind!

Upper level pattern for Saturday, April 30. Note the upper high centered off Norway and an upper low centered over the northern Bay of Biscay, this is funnelling winds off the North Sea and across Britain

KEY ATMOSPHERIC FEATURES DRIVING THIS WEEKEND’S UK WEATHER…

1) HIGH PRESSURE PRODUCES SUNSHINE AND WARMTH FOR MOST AREAS.

2) HIGH PRESSURE CORE OFF NORWAY AND AN UPPER LOW OFF NW FRANCE PRODUCES STRONG EAST WINDS ACROSS BRITAIN, PARTICULARLY NORTH SEA COASTS.

3) PRESSURES WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH ACROSS INLAND UK AND THIS WILL MEAN THE WARMTH GENERATED BY SINKING AIR BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVERCOME COOLING EFFECTS FROM THE STRONG EAST WIND, THUS THOUGH IT’S BLUSTERY, TEMPS WILL STILL RISE TO 17 OR 20C IN MOST SPOTS….

From London all the way to Inverness, it should be mostly, if not completely sunny throughout Saturday, Sunday and into at least the first half of next week thanks to a high pressure system firmly anchored overhead.

With it’s relatively strong 564mb centre off Norway (east of Shetland) and an upper low centered over the northern Bay of Biscay, NW France, this aligns a strong east/northeast flow which will bring a blustery weekend throughout the UK but the chillier temperatures will be restricted to the North Sea coast and only inland areas exposed to the open sea. The reason is the pressure heights are strong enough that the air warms faster than the winds cool it, thus though gusty winds are likely for many, it will still be warm.. Only North Sea coastal areas may struggle to reach 10C (50F). Elsewhere, from London to Inverness, it’s all about the warm, glorious sunshine despite windy conditions that could well be strong enough to rock around high profile vehicles travelling north-south and possibly raise high wind warnings on some bridges such as the north-south facing Forth and Tay Road Bridges. Expect a uniform 17 to 20C surface temperature profile across most of inland Britain and because there won’t be a westerly onshore wind, the immediate west coast seaside towns may get to be just as warm as the sheltered inland areas with 20, even 21C in such places as Blackpool, Ayr and Oban and all points in between.

Areas west of the Pennines, so say an area from Oxfordshire up through the west Midlands, west Cumbria and the sheltered western side of the Highlands of Scotland may see temperatures top 21, perhaps even 22 or 23C as winds should be lighter.

WEATHER TALK
By Mark Vogan

IT WAS METEOROLOGICAL PERFECTION THAT CAME TOGETHER IN THE WRONG PLACE THAT KILLED SO MANY!

When marrying together a certain type of ingredients and unfortunately that is what happened on Wednesday evening. I personally think, given the type of season, the regions in which these tornadoes were forming that something bigger was brewing and something very ugly indeed.

The hits on St Louis airport and other ‘population focused’ areas that because this pattern was almost appearing to intensify in it’s conflicting extremes and the fact that this weather was pointing not to the open, unpopulated plains but a populated area of the country, this season was going to worsen in a big way.

The setup was pure meteorological perfection. Storms, Supercells and Tornadoes that you would see a few times a year in the unpopulated, wide spaces of the High Plains AWAY FROM CITIES , in a hollywood movie or in a weatherbook. Well, like mentioned a line or two above, I think that this has been a severe weather season that’s WANTED TO BE BAD, the cold to the north, very hot air to the south, a stronger jet stream aloft, strong low’s attached and let’s not forget the very warm, abnormally warm Gulf of Mexico waters where this very large, very warm, body of water is releasing heat, which translates into humidity/moisture released into the atmosphere above. This warmer, moister than normal air is being picked up by south winds across the Deep South that’s driven by the ‘meteorological perfection’ over the heart of the US, Unfortunately, all this weather exploded over a populated area and because there are more buildings and property and people live and work here, that’s why there’s the deaths.

I leave you with this thought. I for one will commend those forecasters out there that did a second to none job at announcing DAYS ahead that very bad severe weather was likely and with hours left to spare, the threat was as high as it ever could be. The warnings where there for folks and of course, the only thing people could do was GET OUT. Nothing would stop these EF4s and 5s, however, this was a catastrophy and I wonder, would the exceptionally high death toll been much higher, had it been 20, 30 years ago? Yes, population growth etc needs to be taken into consideration, however, people were warned because the technology was there and available. What if you had the same amount of people back then and the same event take place, would the toll have perhaps ran into the thousands or tens of thousands or rather than hundreds?? It still is a stocking amount and my heart goes out to those who are suffering at this time with either loss of property, loved ones or even more devastating, both.

VAGARIES OF THE WEATHER
INDIA & SUB-CONTINENTAL ASIA WEATHER
BY RAJESH KAPADIA

Monsoon Watch 4

Seasonal Low: Indicator: -ve

The days have started heating up in the Sub-continent since the last couple of days. 47c at Larkana in Pakistan 2 days back, and consistent 45s in the Rajasthan and Sindh regions (Pakistan) assure us of the seasonal low forming soon. But, what we still require are the severe heat waves, which are still missing.

The formation of the low is behind schedule, with the core region in the Thar desert still to form and lacks consistency. The MSLP in the Pakistan Sindh region is 1002 mb as of today. Lower since MW 3. But we must remember, that a series of W.D.s have been constantly keeping the temperatures down by as much as 5-7c below the normal.

As on end April, a pressure of 1000 mb in the central core region around Barmer is normal.

Bay Sector: Indicator: -ve

At least the high pressure mentioned in MW 3 is now dissolving, with the help of Southerly winds. Many international forecasting models indicate the formation of a low in the Bay by the 1st. of May. Pre- Monsoon low formation seen in the next week’s time frame.

Previous MWs have stressed upon the importance of a low in the Bay by end April. Once a pre-monsoon low is formed, it increases the speed of the SW winds in the Bay sector. An ideal wind speed of 25-30 knts hastens the cloud formations. READ REST

I ALWAYS encourage you to check out Rajesh’s site for outstanding weather coverage from a personal, local perspective… I am prous that’s Vagaries is opur partner blog!

WHAT’S REACHING TODAY’S BLOGS?

First tornado confirmed for Maryland, in PG County
Maryland Weather

WHAT’S ON TODAY’S WEATHERBELL BLOGS?

Yes Virginia ( mountains) and other places, snow is in the air next week

Joe Bastardi’s Blog, Weatherbell.com

THE EXTREMES OF THE DAY

TODAY’S US EXTREMES
COURTESY OF ACCUWEATHER

HIGH: 104 degrees at Pecos, TX
LOW: 5 degrees at Stanley, ID

TODAY’S EXTREMES HERE AT MY HOUSE

HIGH: 60 degrees
LOW: 41 degrees

Thanks for reading.
-Mark

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