>19 April, 2011

Written by on April 19, 2011 in Rest of Europe with 0 Comments

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TODAY’S TOP WEATHER STORIES
On Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan

Dry, windy conditions complicate Texas fire fight
CNN

Another round of severe weather could strike Midwest
CNN

Record-Breaking April Barely Halfway Done
THE WEATHER CHANNEL

TODAY’S WEATHER ACROSS UK & EUROPE By Mark Vogan

Despite only being April, UK and western Europe find ourselves in a classic summer pattern as Gravesend, Kent tops 25C this afternoon!

Having a ball: Alexander Wallop, 8, and his five-year-old brother Felix, from Highbury, north London, play in the fountains at Somerset House (Daily Mail)

Key Highlights worth noting about the week ahead across the UK…

1) As high pressure builds north from France, temperatures will rise well above normal.
2) Areas such as Scotland will see more sunshine nationally and highs push into the 20s.
3) Between Friday and Sunday, portions of southeast England may reach the ‘upper 20s C’
4) Between Friday and Saturday portions of Scotland may approach or top 25C in somewhere like Glasgow or Aviemore.

SHARP RISE IN UK HIGH OF 19.9C YESTERDAY TO 25C TODAY, THANK THE BUILDING OF HIGH PRESSURE!

As the ridge commences it’s northward journey today, we’ve seen a marked rise in the national high as compared with yesterday which was 19.9C at Blackpool. The 25C high today comes exceptionally close to a UK record for today’s date which was 25.6C. When final figures are in, we may have tied or even broken this record this afternoon at Gravesend.

This is today’s upper pattern from the European model, note the darker yellows just into the extreme southeast of England.. That was what supported the 25C high today at Gravesend. Also note the ‘cooler’ pale yellows covering the rest of the UK, however those ‘pale yellows’ still produced highs of 18 or 19C today across central and southern Scotland!

So, why are things heating up? Well, like I explained yesterday, the pale yellows were in place yesterday, thus pressures, though modest, we’re enough to support upper teens to around 20C. But over the course of the overnight, the high has nudged enough northwards to raise the temperature in the upper levels as ‘pressure heights’ or thickness values rise. When this occurs and that is illustratice in the European model for today as compared with yesterday, we support warmer temperatures at the surface. A darker yellow, or stronger pressure moved into the southeast of England and with good sunshine and large-scale sinking air over London, this allowed a very warm mid-April day.

IF AN EAST/SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW KICKS IN AND CROSSES THE COTSWALDS AND PENNINES, AREAS TO THE WEST MAY REPORT 25C TOMORROW…

Those darker yellows will continue moving north, the atmosphere will warm suffiently in the mid to upper-levels over ALL of England and Wales tomorrow to support strong burnoff of overnight cloud, mist and fog as the sinking process will be rapid to kick in once the sun is up. Though Greater London, like today will likely be the hotspot where highs may reach 26C, the area of 22 to 24C will spread across more of the south and quite possibly up into the Midlands of England tomorrow rather than just the southeast. The air which was only over the southeast today will have expanded and pushed up to Birmingham, perhaps as far north as Manchester tomorrow. It’s possible that a southeast flow kicked in and enhanced by the land heating up, may actually do a little downsloping off the Pennines as well as over the Cotswalds in the south-central region. I wouldn’t be surprised to see an odd 25C show up.

As for Scotland, like today, the Southern Uplands including Dumfries and Galloway and the Borders should enjoy good but hazy sunshine with highs building towards 20 or 21C tomorrow. The true heat will still be to the south and this means cloudier, showery skies for northern areas once again tomorrow. The central Belt may see highs a degree or two above today, so don’t be surprised to see 21C in Glasgow tomorrow.

Scotland by the late part of the week will enjoy temperatures comparable to the south of England as the core of heat surges north and across Scotland, mainly by Friday, Saturday and Sunday if current models are correct. That would mean highs over inland areas of the south, central Belt and even up into the sheltered Highlands may see widespread 22-23C highs with a spot or two recording 25C! I am going out on a limb as this would be exceptional but I am going by the fact that it was as warm as it was at Gravesend in Kent today despite the core of heat only beginning to nose in from the near continent. Once this atmosphere is primed and heated up, I believe temperatures will get above expected values. Somewhere in the southeast of England may appraoch the UK all-time record high of 29C. Yes, 29C may be approached by this weekend!

TODAY’S WEATHER ACROSS AMERICA By Mark Vogan

By continuing to ride storms in between warm and cold air, storms will continue!

HEARTLAND IN FIRING LINE ONCE AGAIN TODAY, MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NEXT UP!

Today will be another turbulent one for those in the central and southern Plains. If you notice in the current temperature chart below, there is an almost perfect north-south divide in abnormal warmth to the south, abnormal cold and snow in the north with the storm forming and intensifying in between. Where the front is today, watch out and keeping tracking on TV or radio!

This very storm is negatively influencing the fire zone in Texas and surrounding areas, winds will whip hard because of the storm’s presence to the north and there is unfortunately a lot of heat and dry air being forced north also. The situation continues to worsen here. More on this tomorrow. 

WEATHER TALK
By Mark Vogan

The urban heat island of London helps jack-up those temperatures!

It’s always interesting when strong upper level ridges during the warmer months arrive from the typically warmer and sunnier climes how the focus of Britain’s warmest temperatures 9 times out of 10 will be somewhere within the Greater London area. Like any large urban sprawl, the core of the world’s major cities will have an urban heat island which heats more so by day and retains that heat longer by night and in the outer areas that have more in the way of greenery and less concrete.

Over the past few days with highs pushing the 24 to 25C range, the warmest spots have either been in central London like we saw today at St James Park or the day yesterday which was at Gravesend in nearby Kent. Whether it be Heathrow, Gravesend, Northolt or St James Park, these are all areas which support an ‘urban environment’ and these places practically always see the warmest readings when compared to perhaps out lying areas which may be 2 to as much as 8C cooler.

The heat continues in the coming days across the UK with tomorrow likely to top at least 26C, if not 27C which is my forecast high for the UK tomorrow. The pressure heights are building still across the UK, the ground across much of the country is very dry and this will help really push highs to near record levels. Remember, the April record for the UK is 29C. That may be approached before the weekend!

VAGARIES OF THE WEATHER
INDIA & SUB-CONTINENTAL ASIA WEATHER
BY RAJESH KAPADIA

W.D.s over, Heat will build up, Starting from Gujarat and moving into Northern plains from Saturday.

Northern Region:

End of the W.D. Season. Looking over the western horizon, and with no W.D. in sight, it seems with A3, we can expect the regular W.D.s to finally cease.( However W.Ds continue in the extreme Nortern regions, in N.Kashmir and above).

After the routine A3 effect, the temperatures are expected to rise from Saturday onwards. Yes, the below normal days for N.India are over after this weekend.

Sure its needed. MW has been constatntly pointing out to the seasonal low factor as “un favourable” and the making-of-the -seasonal-low events had better pick up and gain momentum now.

Delhites, forget the 30s from Saturday,23rd April, and welcome the 40s. all over the Northern plains of Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and U.P.hotter days could be expected, after the 25th of April, turning into heat waves.

Kashmir dry after Thursday, 21st, and warming up !

Gujarat would start heating up immiedietly. Ahmadabad and Baroda can expect to touch 44c on Thursday itself. By Thursday/Friday, I expect some hot spots, maybe Idar, to become the first city in India to touch 45c.

Maharashtra, the interiors would receive thundershowers this week. Vidharbha can expect thundershowers on 21st/22nd, Thursday/Friday, keeping the temperatures this week contained within 41c. Nagpur can expect some heavy thundershowers on Thursday/Friday, specially heavy on Friday. Similarly, convective rains could be expected in Southern regions of the state. Pune would be dry this weekend, with the days around 38/39c.

Southern states, Karnataka and Kerala, will get convective showers this week. Interior regions of Karnataka could get very heavy downpours, while T.N. interior regions would get thundershowers till Friday. Intensity of rains increasing from Saturday in Kerala.

Rainfall tapering off from W.Bengal. NW winds commencing in the NE states (and Bangladesh) will bring violent storms from the weekend.

Seeing rainfall decrease in Nepal from Wednesday itself. Remaining moisture may last for a couple of days to bring convective rains in pockets around the central region. Getting hotter from Saturday. Back into the 30s for Kathmandu.

Next MW on Saturday promises to be more +ve, if the above estimates fall in line.
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WHAT’S REACHING TODAY’S BLOGS?

WHAT’S ON TODAY’S WEATHERBELL BLOGS?

AHA!!!!! Look at What has Popped up ENE of Puerto Rico
Joe Bastardi’s Blog, Weatherbell.com

Storm brought late snow and more severe weather
Joe D’Aleo, Weatherbell.com

THE EXTREMES OF THE DAY

TODAY’S US EXTREMES
COURTESY OF ACCUWEATHER

HIGH: 106 degrees at Laredo, TX
LOW: 7 degrees at Stanley, ID

TODAY’S UK EXTREMES
COURTESY OF THE MET OFFICE

HIGH: 78 degrees (25.4C) at St James Park (Central London)
LOW: 31 degrees (-0.7C) at Exeter Airport (Devon)

TODAY’S EXTREMES HERE AT MY HOUSE

HIGH: 70 degrees
LOW: 46 degrees

Thanks for reading.
-Mark

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