>3 December, 2010

Written by on December 3, 2010 in Rest of Europe with 1 Comment

>SEE THE FACEBOOK AND TWITTER PAGES FOR REGULAR UPDATES AND VIDEOS

Today’s Top Weather Stories
On Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan

LATEST NEWS FROM ARCTIC BRITAIN
For many, last night beats coldest nights of last winter!
-17C at Aberdeen, -13.7C at Edinburgh, -13C at Manchester, -10C at Glasgow, -15C at Eskdalemuir, -20C at Braemar

**LEEMING, NORTH YORKSHIRE SAW A NEW ALL-TIME LOW OF -17.1C, COLDEST SINCE RECORDS BEGAN BACK IN 1945!!
Story by Mark Vogan

As skies cleared out from coast to coast and snow showers which have plauged much of the UK landmass over the past week, especially from Perthshire down through the Central Belt and into the northeast of England eases and gives way to High Pressure from the north peeling those pesky showers back to the coastal fringes and winds drop to barely a breathe by mid-afternoon yesterday, you know it’s going to be a cold night ahead when temperatures are noticably colder in feel, well before sunset. Seeing those deep purples show up on the eastern horizon (opposite side to the western horizon where the sun sets) whilst beautiful, showed just how cold the air was suspended above us and was ready to drop to the frozen, deeply snowcovered surface.

Once the sun did drop, pavements which had been walked on and snow compacked, turned quickly to solid ice and snow starts to squeek as temperatures drop from -4 or 5 to the more unusual depths of -8C and still falling, even in the typically warmer inner towns and cities that are warmed by buildings etc. I looked out my window last night as my thermometer registered -11C (12F) and the sky was filled by little steam vents from houses, vast plumes of steam rose virtically into the frozen air and this is created simply by someone turning on a hot tap in the kitchen or bathroom. City and town centres across Scotland and England saw rapid temperature drops after sunset, falling into the unusual territory we saw less than 12 months ago in what was the coldest winter for the UK in some 31 years and coldest in Scotland since at least 1963. Steam vents off many builings and vast plumes of smoke beltch from vehicles. Car doors struggle to open and cars, trucks and buses take time to start and even when travelling along the road, they struggle in cold air their not accustomed or really even designed for here in what is usually a moderate, temperature and oceanic climate. However, In only one year, one may think we’re now living in Russia, Norway or even Canada as our winter temperatures have become a little more extreme, more continental if you will. It’s hard to believe that just a few short years ago in the winter of 2007-2008, that it was one of the warmest winter’s on record here. We’ve endured a long 30 year streak of generally milder, wetter and windier winter’s yet since the turn of 2008 and the noticeably colder winter of 2008-09, the pattern appears to be turning colder and this looks good with many ideas out there that the overall driver is cyclical and indeed the oceans and sun drive our climate, not the supposed increase in CO2 and it’s warming effects it apparently has. The fact that the Atlantic is still warm but Pacific is colder and that we’re seeing these types of temperatures for a third winter in a row makes me think the whole thing is flipping colder in the larger scale. La Ninas are becoming stronger and El Ninos less frequent. A winter blasted by one warm Atlantic depression after another may be a thing of the past…

30-YEARS OF WARM NORTH ATLANTIC MAY BE WANING AS PACIFIC HAS TRANSITIONED TO COLD, DISPLAYED BY INCREASINGLY POWERFUL LA NINAS

Back during the last cold Atlantic Multidecal Oscillation which stretched basically from the 1950s to late 1970s produced long, harsh winter’s for not only the UK and Europe but also across the Northern World, From 1979 up until 2008 winter’s on the whole have been mild and this corrolates well with a warmer Atlantic and indeed Pacific. Warmer than normal oceans surrounding the continents and one draws the conclusion that the continents will be warmer. But cool one of those oceans and this changes the equation.

SO WHY THE COLDER WINTER’S IN BRITAIN IF THE NORTH ATLANTIC IS STILL WARM?

I believe that though oceans are probably a key driver in temperature on the planet, the biggest driver of all is the sun itself. The sun undergoes cycles just like the oceans do. These cycles are generally 11-year’s in duration. Some cycles are made up of “high sunspot activity” and therefore higher or stronger solar cycles tend to corrolate very well with warmer times on earth, however when there is reduced solar activity (sunspots) on the sun and for lengthy periods, then temperatures are lower on earth. Since 2008 the sun has undergone a deep lull in activity and I believe these cold spells have attribution to one of the lowest spells of sunspot activity in the past 100 years to colder weather. However this doesn’t explain everything. That brings me on to my second contributor… Volcanic activity. Remember Mt Redout in Alaska going off in 2008, and Eyjafjallaj√∂kull in Iceland earlier this year? An increase in volcanic activity has been corrolated to “high latitude blocking”, what’s that mean? Well instead of a more westerly air flow crossing the continents and thus oceanic air of milder origin crossing the continents, bringing warmer, wetter, windier weather to North America, Europe and even Asia. Large “blocking high’s” build way north into the Arctic regions and way up in the higher reaches of the atmosphere, it warms within the stratosphere. Warming of the atratosphere has been proved to created large, bloocking high’s way north and thus creates a road-block on the normally progressive upper-pattern over the N. Hemisphere, thus stopping that typical westerly air flow and thus can either send warmth way north like we’re seeing now over Greenland and Iceland or drop very cold, Arctic air way south, like the UK and western and northern Europe is seeing. Large blocking highs which push north from the mid-latitudes into the higher latitudes means that either side of those high pressure cells, trough, large and deep trough are formed, thus the jet stream which seperates sub-tropical air from Polar air becomes wavy, amplified or meridional. Depending upon where these “blocking ridges” park themselves, somewhere is likely to see unusual warmth and other places unusual cold and snow. The problem is, these blocking high’s have parked themselves over Greenland, stopping a progressive, typical maritime pattern over the UK and much of Europe and by clossing the door on Atlantic air being able to get across Britain, means the Arctic floods the UK and Europe.

So, what actually forces the warming of the stratosphere in the first place to create cooling below? Volcanoes that erupt and send soot, carbon dioxide and other materials high into the upper atmosphere, block out the incoming solar rays enough that the lack of sunlight being able to penetrate the stratosphere eventually warms it and therefore the normally cold stratosphere is a warm one. Where does that warmth go? Downwards!


In today’s news

Ice warning across Scotland as temperatures drop
BBC Scotland

Weather across UK to become “much, much colder”
BBC

‘Don’t go out unless you have to’ police warn, as overnight temperatures fall to -20C and Britain is left under a sheet of ice

The Daily Mail

Today’s Weather across America
From AccuWeather 

Snow on Top of Snow in Chicago
AccuWeather

Snowstorm Aims for Fargo, Minneapolis, Chicago
AccuWeather

Days Getting Shorter, but the Sun Sets Later?
AccuWeather

Weather Talk
By Mark Vogan

Vagaries of the Weather
India & Sub-Continental Asia Weather
By Rajesh Kapadia

Friday, December 03, 2010

Indian Peninsula with Twin lows on both sides. 

In the Arabian Sea, its 93A, with a pressure at 1006 mb and situated at 7N and 62.4E. Winds at 25 knots.

It has shifted slightly east of the previous location,more into warmer waters, and now is elongated and more dis-organised.

Likely track: Initially North.

And in the Bay, 94B, with pressure at 1006 mb, and winds at 15 knots, situated at 5.1N and 89.2 E. Embedded in the monsoon trough, likely to deepen and consolidate, as SST is around 28c in the area.

Likely Track: Will be towards the Sri Lanka and exterme South T.N. coast. And may re-emerge in the Arabian Sea in 2 days
 
FOR MUCH MORE GREAT INFORMATION ON INDIA, ASIAN AND GLOBAL WEATHER SEE OUR PARTNER’S BLOG IN-FULL HERE!
 
What’s Reaching Today’s Blogs?

Plausible: One Cold Ice Bench In Lithuania
Jesse Ferrell, AccuWeather

Let’s Look at the Big Daddy Prospects
Henry Margusity, AccuWeather

The Extremes of the Day

Today’s US Extremes
Courtesy of AccuWeather

High: 84 degrees at Childress, TX
Low: -17 degrees at Baudette, MN

Today’s UK Extremes
Courtesy of the Met Office

High: 47 degrees (8.5C) at Isles of Scilly
Cold High: 20 degrees (-6.5C) at Fyvie Castle (Aberdeenshire)
Low: -5 degrees (-20.4C) at Braemar (Aberdeenshire)

Today’s Extremes here at my house

High: 32 degrees
Low: 12 degrees

TODAY’S CONDITIONS
Snowcover: 7.5 inches
Snowshowers moved and continued off and on throughout the day under a heavy blanket of cloud after the coldest night of winter and this ties the coldest low ever recorded at my site!

Thanks for reading.
-Mark

Follow us

Connect with Mark Vogan on social media to get notified about new posts and for the latest weather updates.

Subscribe via RSS Feed Connect on YouTube

1 Reader Comment

Trackback URL Comments RSS Feed

  1. OKey sunglasses says:

    >Thank you very much for sharing such cool things. Really good~ I would like to share something with you as well.I promise that you can find your favourite at

Leave a Reply

Top