>31 August, 2010

Written by on August 31, 2010 in Rest of Europe with 2 Comments

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Today’s Top Weather Stories
On Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan

Monster Hurricane Earl remains on a dangerous course up the Eastern Seaboard
By Mark Vogan

8.30pm GMT Update: As strong Hurricane Earl continues to go through it’s eyewall-replacement-cycle it is beginning to appear to have a better defined eye now and this is likely a sign that the eyewall replacement is near complete, once complete I think Earl will enter a window of oppertunity for intensification towards category 5 intensity as it continues it’s northwest track towards the North Carolina coast. The track idea is basically not changed and by Thursday the system will be moving in close to the East Coast producing wind, rain and high surf. My big worry is that as this storm crosses the Gulf Stream as a category 5 storm which it has a chance of becoming over the next 24 to 36 hour period, then all the ABNORMALLY WARM WATERS surrounding the Gulf Stream which is flowing parallel up the East Coast, that the conditions are too good for any substantial weakening, the question is this, say by this time tomorrow (8.15pm GMT) Earl has become either a strong cat 4 or cat 5, as it remains over mid-80 degrees waters and a Gulf Stream of similar heat content but at much deeper levels (ultimately providing ever higher octane fuel) then is there a chance that Earl may be stronger than cat 3, say a moderate cat 4 (max winds of 140mph) say 150 miles offshore, does this thing have a Hugo impact? I am very concerned that the ridge to the north and finally east of Earl in the next 48 hours builds more than expected, therefore it has a greater chance of taking what could be a category 4 Hurricane Earl over the Outer Banks, ultimately bringing true devastation. Worse than Isabel.
Dry Air to the north of Earl may perhaps be a saving grace and may hold back on Earl’s intensity somewhat, intensity of strong system when approaching the South and Mid-Atlantic coasts become more complec as continental effects begin to impact hurriceans on approach to the coast….
Tomorrow I shall provide you with the finer details of the track of Earl and intensity ideas on both a Video Presentation as well as Written Discussion right here… Stay tuned!
I shall not do a video today but hope to provide one tomorrow. Stay tuned.

Related Stories on Earl from AccuWeather

Earl’s Strength to Fluctuate, Category 5 a Long Shot

Update: Hurricane Earl will Remain as a Cat 4 Hurricane

Earl to Threaten Nova Scotia, Newfoundland

From the National Hurricane Center

Hurricane EARL Public Advisory

Hurricane EARL Forecast Discussion

Today’s Weather across America
From AccuWeather

How Northeast Should Prepare for Hurricane Earl
By Jesse Ferrell, Meteorologist/Community Director

Hawaii Drought Squeezes Agriculture, Water Supply

Weather Talk
By Mark Vogan

A beautiful end to August but why such cold and even frosty, nights across Scotland and UK

Whilst my Indian Summer pattern kicks in on the tail end of August for the UK with a settled, calm and pleasantly pattern under an Anticyclone providing the all important sunny days, Nights to me are very cold for August, albeit the end of the month. I remember of recently times the first frost occuring in Mid-September but not when it’s still be August. Sure, to the north over higher ground and under the right conditions, you can get frost in June, August, even July but for the lowlands of Scotland, the main population belt between Glasgow and Edinburgh dropping barely a couple of degree below freezing at this “still early” time of year is mighty impressive.

Last night I was in Mossend (east side of Glasgow) and skies couldn’t be clearer over the Central Belt, winds could be lighter.. air dry enough and the mid-60 degree heat of the day soon radiated back to space. By 12.15 this morning I texted my wife asking her, what’s the temperature back here in Lennoxtown? 42 degrees… I knew we’re heading for the 30s and right enough this morning’s low fell to an impressive late August level of 38 degrees here, that’s 3C and enough to have created a light, patchy frost prior to sunrise this morning.

Skies throughout the Central Belt last night were perfectly clear and calm, all the way north to Inverness. I believe up between Dalwhinnie and Daviot, it must have dropped into the minus territory last night and this morning as frost was present and actually fairly heavy in spots, particularly around the Carrbridge area where I believe the colder, lowlying air collects well in that area where surrounding high-elevation hills slope gently. Dalwhinnie, the small settlement about 25 miles south of Aviemore and just north of Drumochter Summit also is high in elevation but with gently slopped hills running north, south, here it’s often the coldest spot in all of the UK. Id guess that in the cold nooks between Dalwhinnie, Aviemore (though there was steam and fog) up to particuularly Carrbridge, which is often colder than even Aviemore, the low must have dropped towards -2 or even -3C this morning, that’s down into the upper 20s F.

In all, I think it’s the low numbers down here in the populated central Belt where it’s gotten berely a degree or two above the freezing mark is most impressive, certainly for the end of what is considered a “true summer month”.

Why so cold?

I wonder if it’s not just the very clear skies and lack of wind, but the dryness of the atmosphere, allowing more heat to be radiated back to space, because last night, between 7.30 and 8.30pm, the temperature at my house had dropped from around 60 to 52 degrees (16 to 11C), daytime highs, though mild and pleasantly warm feeling in direct sunlight, isn’t all that warm and summer air masses of warm, sub-tropical origin tend to weaker more at this latitude at this late stage in the year, therefore it won’t take quite as much under the right conditions for the atmosphere to react on the air temperatures once you loose sunlight. Remembering that it’s practically dark by 9pm and there’s no daylight until 5am again, a substantial period of time in a relatively dry air mass and with absense of motion (wind) for the accummulated daytime heat to be mixed or turned over, holding the heat, a still air will draw heat from the ground and release it quickly back to space…

I also wonder whether the cold and dry northerly winds blowing just prior to the arrival of the high from the west, brought drier air down from the typically drier origins of the Arctic providing a drier air than normal, then once the high arrived and the conditions right, it allowed a lower drop than we typically see? That’s another theiry I have as to why the normally milder Central Belt saw levels more typical in the Highlands.

It felt like November 1, not August 30th and certainly I was impressive by this late summer chill.

Nights won’t be as cold from now on as this air mass is becoming moister thanks to the presense of Britain’s surrounding waters, these air masses that remain in place become moister with time and indeed you’ll notice nights remain milder than last night, also days may and are expected to become warmer with highs pushing or even surpassing 70 degrees (21C) across many areas of the Central Belt, providing skies remain clear enough. My high this afternoon under mostly clear skies topped a comfortable 67 degrees, one degree higher than yesterday and nearly 30 degrees off this mornings low of 38. Interestingly, the warmest spot in Britain yesterday was Eskdalemuir with a high of 70 degrees!

What’s Reaching Today’s Blogs?

Hurricane Earl Could Become Cat 5 – Stats
Jesse Ferrell;s AccuWeather

Hurricane Earl a Major Concern for the Maritimes
Brett Anderson, Canada Expert, AccuWeather

Here Comes Earl. Brace Yourself New England!
Henry Margusity, AccuWeather

Today’s US Extremes
Courtesy of AccuWeather

High: 104 degrees at Death Valley, CA
Low: 20 degrees at Bodie State Park, CA
Today’s Extremes here at my house

High: 67 degrees
Low: 38.1 degrees

Thanks for reading.

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  1. Anonymous says:

    >Hi Mark. I hope the trucking is going well. I read a recent blog where a member claimed that the gulf stream has "shut down" over the past three months? However he doesn't believe it has anything to do with the oil spill. I wouldn't want BP to get in any more trouble. Any truth in this Mark? I am concerned, especially after last winter causing my windscreen washers to freeze, that this could become a permanent feature.

    I also wonder if the sun spot activity has returned to normal? If not, could this have caused the frost on my car?

    Warmest Regards


  2. Anonymous says:

    >I believe that the first snows arrived in Scotland on Saturday/Sunday due to the northerly wind. I do note that it was forecast above 850 m. I find this impressive considering we haven't even seen the end of "summer." I can't remember the last time we had a "northerly blast" so early? Did any one see white peaks at the weekend?

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