>We now have MAJOR Hurricane Earl, What lies ahead?

Written by on August 30, 2010 in Rest of Europe with 0 Comments

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8pm GMT: SPECIAL HURRICANE EARL VIDEO BY MARK VOGAN

7.30pm GMT UPDATE: We now have a category Hurricane Earl with maximum sustained winds upped to 120-mph and gusts to 150-mph, unfortunately I do see this storm not only threatening the Outer Banks of North Carolina but between Puerto Rico and Cape Lookout, NC growing into a monster cat 4 system with a small chance this even becomes a top-ranked cat 5 storm over the Gulf Stream…. no I don’t think a cat 5 is going to hit the East Coast, ok!

Now, as the tracks push farther and father west with time and it worries the East Coast even more with Cape Cod, MA now under threat of a serious hit, whether it be a case of the eye passing just offshore, but still hammering the island with powerful hurricane conditions or, it’s a worst case the eye crosses Cape Cod at Falmouth or Hyannis, MA.

Because the system has been fairly weak up until now, I think that’s why this system never found a way out like Danielle and indeed Danielle is basically responsible for Earl’s weaker state, now that Danielle’s gone, Earl is off to the races and now that it’s NORTH of Puerto Rico, it’s intensifying!

THE COMPLEXITIES OF THE SURROUNDING PATTERN THAT WILL DICTATE WHERE EARL WILL GO THIS WEEK

 Now, the ridge that’s to the north of Earl right now has been building westwards as Danielle departed and due to the influence of Earl below it and thus has been keeping Earl from turning north, had Danielle now been there in the first place, then Earl would have done the exact thing Danielle did, once intensified, it caught the trough dropped down and up it went into the graveyard of the cold North Atlantic…

Now that the trough is pushing southeastward off the US coast and the blowtorch ridge that’s baking the Northeast is building and esentially pushing the trough out into the Western Atlantic NORTH of Earl, this won’t grab Earl and the ridge due north of Earl will hold it for now. The issue is that as the ridge in the Eastern US then follows suit of the trough out ahead of it, it should join up with the ridge due north of Earl, therefore keeping it pointing towards the US coast… THE QUESTION IS AS IT WEAKENS AS IT JOINS WITH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE, DOES IT WEAKEN ENOUGH THAT EARL WILL TRACK AROUND IT, BUT STILL REMAIN OFF THE EAST COAST????

That is the golden question and my gut feeling is that the East Coast has had too many lucky escapes and this ridge won’t weaken enough, therefore the Outer Banks and possibly Cape Cod may find themselves getting a hit…

How strong a hit? Right now, likely a cat 3 in the Carolinas and a strong cat 2 on Cape Cod…

Stay tuned!

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