>28 August, 2010

Written by on August 28, 2010 in Rest of Europe with 0 Comments

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Today’s Top Weather Stories
On Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan

TROPICAL TROUBLES BUILD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC

DANIELLE ON HER WAY OUT, BUT EARL AND FIONA (TO BE) MAY BE A DIFFERENT STORY

As Danielle progresses north and has likely undergone an eyewall replacement cycle, she will basically graze Bermuda with windy conditions and high surf, however behind Danielle lies an intensifying Tropical Storm Earl that is a little further south, speeding along at 23 mph and will track further west. How far west remains to be seen and it is crucial for US interests as to how late Earl makes that turn towards the northwest and finally (hopefully) north. The slower Earl intensifies, the farther west Earl will track I believe. As we saw with Danielle, as soon as she became a strong hurricane, she than began that sharper turn towards the north, once Earl becomes a hurricane, that will commence that turn, but if it remains a relatively system then Earl may get into an area that will make it too late for that recurve and may pose a serious threat to the US East Coast but time will tell on that one of course.

The system also pushing away from Africa continues to look highly likely to become a depression and then a storm… Stay tuned for more on tomorrow’s post!

Earl to Strengthen, Graze Caribbean Islands
AccuWeather News

Bermuda Escaping Worst of Danielle
AccuWeather News

IN OTHER NEWS TODAY

Double Flood Threat for Flood Wary China
AccuWeather News

After an Unsettled period and the passing of a southward moving cold front over Scotland, High Pressure will bring warm sun by day but potentially cold nights to come
By Mark Vogan

Under clear, calm skies, it’s becoming ever more noticable that summer is coming to an end and despite warm days to come this week, the air will be dry enough and nights long enough under darkness that we are likely to see the coldest levels across Scotland as well as parts of northern and central England over the next few days since May when temperatures dropped to freezing. High Pressure building in from the Atlantic will likely bring glorious warm sunshine with highs across the Scottish Central Belt taking a run at 70 degrees in some areas, particularly during long, sunny spells and within town centres. However under the clear skies, light winds and large-scale sinking of air. This time of year is often cold by night under thr right conditions as the hours of darkness have increased considerably and days, though warm, often loose heat fast as soon as the sun drops below the horizon, therefore even across the urban Central Belt of the country from Glasgow to Edinburgh, we may see not only heavy dew under a starry moon-lit sky but even some patchy frost as temperatures plunge into the low 40s, even upper 30s (around 2-3C), these numbers are enough to support some light frost. Some sheltered highland glens of Scotland may see the first 20s since Spring. The coldest so far was just a couple of days ago when Altnaharra dropped off to -1C or 30F. It wouldn’t surprise me if Dalwhinnie, Aviemore, Carrbridge, Tulloch Bridge, Braemar and other known Highland cold spots dropped to around -1 to -3C over the coming nights.

SIDE NOTE: My friend George who lives a few miles from Carrbridge near Aviemore emailed to say that fresh snow has fallen on Cairngorm Mountain… although, relatively high in elevation, it’s still August… the next few nights are likely to get cold in the Highland Glens with lows below freezing in spots!

Today’s Weather across America
From AccuWeather

Northeast Heat to Build
AccuWeather

Weekend Cool Shot Targets the West
By Katie Storbeck, Meteorologist

Drenching Storms Continue Across Gulf Coast
AccuWeather

Long-Term Rough Surf to Plague Atlantic Coast
By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist

Weather Talk
By Mark Vogan

LOOPING HURRICANES OFTEN HEAD FOR SCOTLAND AND UK
Is Danielle heading for Scotland?

More often than you’d think, tropical storms and hurricanes that recurve over the Western Atlantic often  take a long loop all the way around the central Atlantic Ocean. Born along the African Easterly Jet which runs east to west over Equatorial African and is created by hot, dry air over the Sahra that pushes south towards lower pressures equatorial rainforests, these thunderstorms blossom and push west towards the Atlantic, once over the Atlantic they organise into warm-core closed rotary circulations when atmospheric conditions are right. Then well west of the Cape Verde Islands, these waves often become depressions, storms and finally hurricanes, some turn north before getting too far west. What’s too far west? Either when they enter the Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico. Once beyond a certain latitude, they usually hit land before or at the point of making a northward turn. Often they make that northward turn but still remain too far west to miss some sort of population.

Danielle will remain in the open Atlantic and is taking a classic recurve over the west-central Atlantic and will eventually head due north before catching the westerlies. Once at a certain latitude, both it’s forward speed and turn becomes more prominant. Often what was a tropical (warm-cored) system becomes cold-cored and becomes baroclinic, the system transforms into what is known as an extra-tropical system and often it crosses the North Atlantic, full circle from eastern tropical Atlantic, thousands of miles across to the west central Atlantic, then turns and takes a long but faster journey over the cold North Atlantic and into the UK, bringing wind, rain and sometimes disruption.

Danielle may take a run at thr UK over the next 7-day period and if so, I shall take video.

What’s Reaching Today’s Blogs?

Pennsylvania 2010 Severe Weather Season Wrapup
Jesse Ferrell, AccuWeather

Today’s US Extremes
Courtesy of AccuWeather

High: 108 degrees at Yuma, AZ
Low: 29 degrees at Bodie State Park, CA

Today’s UK Extremes
Courtesy of the Met Office

High: 69 degrees at St James’s Park (Central London)
Low: 37 degrees at Katesbridge (Co Down)
Today’s Extremes here at my house

High: 62 degrees
Low: 49 degrees

Thanks for reading.
-Mark

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