>8 August, 2010

Written by on August 8, 2010 in Rest of Europe with 0 Comments

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Today’s Top Weather Stories
On Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan

Young American tourists, no name or details given, brave the thick blanket of smog covering Moscow as they visit the Red Square, Sunday, Aug. 8, 2010, with St,Basil’s cathedral in the background. (AP Photo/Pavel Golovkin)

Deadly Wildfires Rage on Near Moscow
AccuWeather News

New Tropical System Could Form in Gulf of Mexico
AccuWeather News

Another Round of Dangerous Heat Spreading East
AccuWeather News
Extreme Rainfalls
Dr Greg Forbes, The Weather Channel
your america today forecast
by mark vogan
southern plains
With some spotty showers and storms rumbling across particularly the Upper and Mid-Texas coast by evening and quietening down overnight, these isolated storms tend to blossom over the Mid and Upper Texas coast during the warming period from 9am till 1pm and then they progress inland with Houston possibly seeing storms roll in from the Gulf as the sea breezes gets going as air temps rise to the 90-degree mark by lunchtime, San Antonio also may see midday to PM storms. Other storms may develop across east, central and northeast Texas this afternoon and this is aided by an upper low that’s been spinning off the Mid-Texas coast and is now pushing north, this upper low is spinning mid to upper level energy over a 97-101 degree surface and thus helping thunderstorms to develop by mid to late afternoon. Highs are likely to warm to around 96-97 around Houston, 101 at Dallas and around 96 from San Antonio to Lubbock, Storms may in fact die out before reaching 50 or so miles inland down around Corpus Christi as the air is drier over the interior, so skies are likely to remain mostly cloud free over western Texas. Lows tonight will fall to around 75 for inland areas with some 50s and 60s over the higher ground of West and Southwest Texas, 79 for both Dallas and Houston and 80-83 along the Gulf Coast.  
northern plains
After a stormy day and night, you folks from the Dakotas to Wisconsin and into Michigan will again see new storms blow up through today as a fresh surge of southern plains heat pushed north and connects with the energy associated with a weak low that’s spinning west to east over the North Tier. With the push of hot and very humid air will come a risk of showers and thunderstorms turning severe with a high chance of 1″ per hour rains which may cause street flooding, dangerous lightening as well as damaging straight line winds and there is a chance of an isolated tornado. I believe the highest risk of strong storms will effect likely an areas east of the Twin Cities from west-central Wisconsin towards Detroit and the central LP of Michigan and down into the Ohio Valley. Clearer, sunnier skies though hot temperatures will effect the Dakotas this afternoon where we may see highs push the upper 90s! From Bismarck to Minneapolis we should see mostly sunshine today but a few residual pop-up showers  may effect another over Minnesota and Iowa, it will feel very summer-like with humidity in the 70s and high temps into the mid-90s with a 94-95 degree high in Minneapolis, realfeels over 100 degrees! Down by Chicago there is a chance of some thunderstorms rolling through today from Wisconsin, even these may approach the northern suburbs as severe as humidity will be high and temps into the low 90s, so the air will have plenty of fuel for these storms to tap into, so if your in the Chicagoland area today, watch as storms roll in from Wisconsin. It’s going to feel sticky and uncomfortable with a 70-degree dew point and a high close to 92. Further south as the heat has once again pushed north with 95 or higher expected from Kansas City to St Louis… Lows tonight drop off to the 60s over the Dakotas, Around 70 for Minnesota and Wisconsin, Mid-70s from Chicago to Detroit on southwards.
Thanks to a new trough swinging into the Northwest US, the summer gloom continues to supress coastal highs in the 50s and 60s with San Francisco struggling these days and weeks to see sunshine for any length of time and a 70-degree high.. That won’t be the case today as heavy clouds push well inland and likely spots, even through the LA basin may fail to see sunshine and a high of only 75. San Francisco downtown will warm to a crisp 62 degrees, whilst San Diego feels the chill at 68 degrees. Coastal Valleys will be cool and even drizzly to start with lows starting off at 55-60 and a slow burn off may be as late as midday, warming highs to only the upper 70s to low 80s… folks I’m talking about places as far inland as Yorba Linda and East Bay areas, San Jose will only top the upper 70s, rather than the normal 80s! Inland Empire and sections of the interiro East Bay, that normally warm into the mid to even upper 90s may struggle to reach 85 this afternoon, desert areas such as Barstow, Lancaster and Palmdale will top out at only 94-96 degrees and Palm Springs will warm to a mere 100-102 degrees. Showers and storms may blossom and effect the Sun Valley of Arizona and the Las Vegas valley holdings highs to UNDER 100 degrees like we saw yesterday. I’m calling for a cool high of 95-99 in both major desert cities. Death Valley will likely struggle to warm above 110 today… Lows tonight, range from the 50s at the coast and downtown SF, Around 60 in LA and 59 at SD, 60s across coastal valleys and canyons as well as even Lancaster, Palmdale and Barstow. Palm Springs, Vegas and Phoenix will cool to a comfortable 75. 
With the trough swinging down through British Columbia and downton into the Seattle to Portland corridor, skies will be very cloudy, gloomy and even rainy with highs only reaching the 65-67 range in Seattle, 75-78 range down in Portland but east of the wall that is the Cascades, the trough has not got over and thus skies will be sunnier and warmer with 80s, even some 90s across the eastern portions of both Washington and Oregon. Across into Montana and lookm for 86 up in Cut Bank to a hot 91 in Billings, heading south through the Rockies and there will be a 40 to 50% chance of showers and storms and the southerly monsoonal moisture pump continues to fire up the atmosphere over the Rockies, keeping highs down a bit from Salt Lake to Denver where highs may fail to top 85-87 degrees. Lows tonight will fall into the 50s and 60s for most areas, higher elevation plateaus and valleys may drop into the 30s with spots such as Bodie State Park and Boca Reservoir in the High Sierra falling into the 20s!
southeast & florida
The high regains intensity over the Mid-Mississippi valley and this will push highs back towards 100 from Little Rock to Memphis down towards Montgomery and Augusta. The clockwise flow around this high will push a moist flow of air in from the Atlantic and this may be the trigger once the land heats for some midday and afternoon thunderstorms across the region. The Carolinas and Florida will see the most activity as the moist air flows in off the ocean and with highs pushing the low to mid-90s, this will be perfect for thunderstorm production, whether it be an onshore sea breeze along the Carolina coast which gets lifted by the mtns to the west or sea breeze convergence over the Fla penn, storms may be strong. Further inland from the Deep South states, the main story will be the combo of high heat in the mid to upper 90s and the high humidity of 70+ which will create dangerous heat index values past 100 and in some cases beyond 110. Interior sections of Georgia all the way across to Texas may see a more “capped” atmosphere and therefore storm development will likely be less and more sunshine as the rule. Atlanta today should top 94-96, Low near 77, Montgomery 98-100, Low 78, New Orleans 95, Low 80 with a 30% storm chance, Memphis 100, Low 79, Shreveport 98, Low 80, Orlando 94, Low 78 with a 40% storm chance, Miami 91, Low 80, with a 40% storm chance. Throughout the Southeast it will be a warm evening and overnight with most locales failing to fall below 75 and in some spots it may be a struggle to get below 80. 
northeast & mid-atlantic
After some glorious days of late, the sunshine will continue anywhere from Virginia all the way north and east through New England with perhaps some spotty showers and clouds further west towards the Lakes and sections of Western New York state as the storms die off as they progressed through the UP and upper LP of Michigan overnight. The skies will be warmer and sunnier the further east you go from the Lakes and as a high pushes off the New England coast today, winds begin to turn more out of the southwest and this will usher in a fresh batch of heat and humidity. Today look for mostly sunny skies, a breeze out of the southwest and highs as follows.. DC to Baltimore near 90 (Low 76), Philadelphia 88 (Low 75), Trenton 89 (Low 75), Newark 88 (Low 78), Central Park, New York City 86 (Low 72), Hartford 85 (Low 68), Boston 86 (Low 70), Portland 82 (Low 64), along the Virginia capes and the beaches of the Delmarva as well as the Jersey and southern Long Island shore, look for a nice PM sea breeze, mostly sunny skies, dew points a little sticky in the 68-74 degree range thanks to warm ocean temps and highs in the mid-80s. northern Long Island shore up to the Maine coast, sea breezes will keep things pleasant with temps ranging from the upper 70s to the south, mid-60s along along the Maine coast.
Today’s Weather across America
From AccuWeather

Unusually Cool Summer So Far for Coastal California


Weather Talk
By Mark Vogan


In my recap of summer in the U.S.A so far, it’s been one of dominant high pressure that’s bounced between the Mid-Atlantic and the Southern Plains. A scorching period centered between  DC and New York back during the first ten days of July and not forgetting the scorching and very humid end to July where the worst of the heat was centered slightly further south than it’s toasty predesessor more between Raliegh and DC where we saw two days topping an incredible 108 degrees at Williamsburg, Virginia, remember also the two straight days of 105-degrees at Richmond and an incredible two days in a row of an all-time record tying 105-degrees at Norfolk, Virginia.

Very high humidity, perhaps enhanced by how warmth the Gulf has been as well as the waters just off the Eastern Seaboard, the high’s intensity and position likely drawing in higher than normal dew point air, the combination of the two has meant a steam bath summer from the Mississippi River Valley to Boston. After those two scorching heat events centered over the Eastern coastal plain, we saw the high bounce southwest, pulling regular mid-90 degree highs back to the more tolerable 80s, dew points also dropped as a trough sagged into the Northeast and brought Canadian air down, making for some perfect weather from New England to DC.

As for the Southern Plains the blowtorch was turned on. The high blossomed over the ARKLATEX region bringing 90s and 100s, what’s made this worse was the fact that the air from the soupy Gulf of Mexico was being tapped, drawing mid to upper 70-degree dew point air up into the Plains with low 80 dew points being read over the moisture rich cornfields of Iowa, Illinois and Missouri where highs were touching 100-105 degrees practically every day, thanks to a persistent ring of fire, cycling around the outer periphery of the Central and Southern Plains hot dome, this made for extremely wet, rainforest like air just above the surface, draw that almost desert-intensity heat over such high moisture levels in the lower atmosphere from Southeast Texas and the Swamps of Louisiana up to Iowa and you’ve got deadly heat…. Sure enough the combo of 80-85 degree dew points (created by training thunderstorms riding the outer edges of the ridge and the heat to evaporate this, drawing all the moisture out of the super saturated soils and you’ve got realfeels surpassing 115, even 120 degrees every day… Since the heatwave of the Mid-Atlantic, the heartland has baked, whilst thunderstorms have been rampant from the Northern Rockies all the way across the Dakotas, Minnesota, northern Illinois into the Ohio Valley.. High dew point air covering much of a region from Dodge City, Kansas to Atlantic City, New Jersey, we have seen persistently warm nights with most nights in the I-95 which have failed to drop below 70, event 75 degrees.. Over the past month we’ve seen Atlanta and New Orleans struggle to see a day below 90, in fact regular afternoons are warming into the mid-90s and with 70-degree dew points in Atlanta, it’s feeling close to or above 100 most days, near 80-degree dew points and regular highs reaching 94-96 degrees, New Orleans have been sweat city with regular 110+ realfeel days. From Little Rock to Memphis north to the I-70 corridor from Kansas City to St Louis, dew points have went through the roof with air temps regularly topping to upper 90s to low 100s, realfeels reaching 110+ and nights that’s have struggled to see 70s.

Coastal California and the Big Cities have shivered!

Where it’s been cool, if not boardering cold has been the California coast, why? In part thanks to the heat out East… Also a persistent pulsing of a trough that’s enhanced the marine layer to a point where heights over the West Coast have been low enough to keep the mid to upper levels cool enough that this has reacted in keeping a thicker, deeper marine deck, the cool air aloft is making the sun work hard and to a point of failure in removing morning clouds and fog from particularly downtown San Francisco as well as San Diego. LA has seen a little more in the way of afternoon sunshien, but low heights over LA have meant, despite sunshine, the surface has seen lower than normal temperatures.

As for inland areas, it’s likely been a close to average summer. The monsoonal flow which has dominated most of summer from Phoenix to Salt Lake and Denver has been thanks to the influence between strong high pressure east of the Rockies and below normal heights west of the Rockies, the trough dipping down California’s coastline and the strong ridging over the Southern Plains, has produced a persistent, moist flow of air up from the Baja of California.

So in my conclusion I wonder, has the trough been persistent thanks to the rapif cooling of the Equatorial Pacific and the strong high that’s bounched between Texas and Virginia been thanks to the warmer than normal Western Atlantic and Gulf?  

What’s Reaching Today’s Blogs?

Image from Jesse Ferrell’s blog!

WOW: Lightning Strike Photo May Show Positive Streamer
Jesse Ferrell, AccuWeather

Today’s Extremes here at my house

High: 72 degrees
Low: 56 degrees

A generally pleasant and warm day with decent spells of filtered sunshine.

Thanks for reading.

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