>29 July, 2010

Written by on July 29, 2010 in Rest of Europe with 0 Comments

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Today’s Top Weather Stories
On Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan

Pakistani villagers wade through flooded area caused by heavy monsoon rain in a village outskirt of Bannu, Pakistan on Wednesday, July 28, 2010, Rivers burst their banks during monsoon rains, washing away streets, battering a dam and killing at least 28 people. (AP Photo/Ijaz Mohammad)
Image Courtesy of AccuWeather.com

Colorado Buried Under Inches of Hail Wednesday
AccuWeather News

India Monsoon Relieving Stress on Crops
AccuWeather News

Blistering Heat Wave Brings Bed Bugs A-Biting
AccuWeather News

your america today forecast
by mark vogan
southeast & florida
Hot, humid and haxy is the name of the game and day by day normality for the Southeast but it certainly seems more so this year with a seemingly endless streak of low to mid-90s across most areas of the Southeast, particularly to the north of I-10… Today shall be no exception with showers and storms minimal through the daytime or heating of the mid-afternoon period, but it may be 3-6pm before some thunderstorms begin developing and their trigger will be mostly a frontal boundary to the north as well as the typical daytime heating, juicy humidity combo. A strong ridge is holding thunderstorm development at bay for longer as temps are warmer aloft and therefore a weak “cap” is in place, however a push of a front will break the cap slightly, allowing thunderstorms to pop, here and there “late this afternoon” and may on and off fire through tonight, becoming a little more widspread through the overnight. I expect highs to top around 95 in New Orleans, LA (DP mid-70s, HI of 105+), Low 79, Atlanta, GA 95 (DP 72-73, HI 100), Low 76, Charlotte, NC 98 (DP low to mid-70s, HI 104-108), Low 78, Jacksonville, FL 97 (DP low 70s, HI 102-106), Low 76, Miami, FL 92 (DP 75-78, HI 108+), Low 80. 
northeast & mid-atlantic
Today marks change in the overall pattern across the Northeast with cooler and much drier air knocking on the northwest doorstep… Good news? I bet it is, especially if you step outside this morning to mid-70-degree air  in areas where it’s raining and you think it’s inviting, only to discover low to mid-70 degree dew points as far north as Boston.. The air is very juicy, sweaty, steamy, whatever you want call it, but hey, your use to it by now aren’t you?
Today will see warmth build towards a uniform 90 in all of the big cities from DC to Boston. Thunderstorms are expected to blossom, particularly later in the afternoon as a front pushes out of the UP of Michigan and will arrive along the Eastern Seaboard by evening enhancing shower and thunderstorm activity throughout the region, clearing out the high heat and humidity. This should bring much more comfortable conditions across the entire region by tomorrow. Lows will return to the 60s tonight for Boston, 40s and 50s for rural areas of Pennsylvania, Upstate New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine down to Connecticut southwards. Boston may be fortunate to drop into the upper 60s, whilst low 70s are likely for New York, Philadelphia, Baltimore and DC.  
southern plains
Building HEAT for the Southern Plains as the Upper-Low that enhanced and persisted the thunderstorm acivity of late across Texas and Oklahoma shifts west into New Mexico, this will help build pressures and the temperatures on the ground across the board with highs right along the Galveston beach to 90, in Houston as high as 95 and with this heat comes the classic humidity in the low to middle 70s, perhaps close to 80 on those beaches along the coast, this 90 degree + heat and 70 degree + humidity will make it feel very hot and unplesant to be outside in today, feeling like 110+ on the beach with the highest levels of humidity in the region, 102-106 in Greater Houston. Further north, actual temperatures will in hotter than further south but humidity will be slightly lower. So, though Dallas will warm to a hot 96 even 97, it’s going to feel more like 102.. likely lower than in Houston.. Areas further west in Texas will be cooler and less hot feeling with the influence of the upper low.. Highs may struggle to get out of the 80s from Lubbock to the panhandle of TX and OK, even further west for areas like El Paso and up into New Mexico, thunderstorms will be likely across the area, expecially once the daytime heating kicks in, look for highs generally in the 84-87 degree range, including El Paso. Lows tonight should drop to near 70 across western and far western Texas, mid-70s for central Texas from San Antonio to Amarillo and 76-80 from Dallas to Houston, I expect as usual a low around 80-82 at Galveston.  
A slightly warmer day for the deserts with a high around 104 to 105 for both Las Vegas and Phoenix as well as Palm Springs and Baker, whilst Barstow, like yesterday is calling for a high near 102. As for areas towards the coast. I’m calling for upper 80s for Riverside and the Inland Empire as well as San Bernardino’s cities of Ontario and Pasadena, near 76 at the Civic Center in Downtown Los Angeles, whilst the beaches should warm to around 70 after morning cloud and fog as per usual this time of year. LA should see a burn off around 10am but a brisk Pacific breeze will hold temps at bay. Lows will fall to the pleasant 50s at the beaches from Oceanside all the way up the California coast, 60s for both LA and San Francisco downtowns and surrounding surburbs as well as the East Bay and coastal valleys and canyons of LA, Orange, Riverside counties. 68-75 for the high desert, mid to upper 70s for the low desert and mid-80s for Las Vegas and Phoenix. Death Valley should warm to around 118, low dropping off to around 88.
A slight cooldown from recent days for the I-5 corridor but skies will remain gloriously sunny and warm with highs around 78 in Seattle and 92 in Portland this afternoon. Expect 60s and 70s for the Cascades as well as the Olympic mountains. To the east of the Cascades, highs once again will be equally as hot as recent days with 90s and 100s likely. Billings may warm to a hot 94 whilst most areas of Montana’s low country will push the mid to upper 90s, higher elevations a cooler, more comfortable 70s and 80s. Lows will range from the 50s in the I-95 corridor, indlucing downtown Seattle and Portland, 30s and 40s for all mountain areas and 60s to perhaps some urban 70s east of the Cascades.
northern plains
An overall gorious, sunny late July day is in store for the Northern tier from Williston, ND all the way down to Kansas City and St Louis in the central Plains, humidity will be very pleasant in the low category as a high pressure cell from Canada is in control bringing highs in the 80s across most areas from NW North Dakota to Chicago, the heat and higher humidity will be confined to the I-70 corridor where a high around 90 will be had in Kansas City and St Louis. Minneapolis will enjoy abundant sun and an 86 degree high, Chicago 84 and Detroit 81. Far NW North Dakota may see an afternoon storm develop with higher temps, highs may push 90 from eastern MT into Williston and Minot.
Today’s Weather across America
From AccuWeather

Heat-Related Deaths, RealFeel Temperatures Up This Summer
By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist

Big Storms in the Mid-Atlantic, Plains Tonight
Weather Talk
By Mark Vogan

The Northeast and Middle Atlantic States Blast-Furnace and Sauna of July 2010


It’s amazing to think that only last July, New York couldn’t buy a 90-degree day for love or money, this July, it’s almost the complete opposite with seemingly day after day of fiercely hot air and deeply tropical humidity which sucks all your body’s vital moisture straight to the surface of the skin as soon as you step outside to what feels like hades as the heat blasts off Manhattan sidewalks and radiates off everything from surrounding buildings to vehicles traversing the overcrowded streets to even traffic signals, AC’s running day and night, have meant a struggle and strain on an aging power grid and some neighbourhoods across particularly the New York, Jersey and Long Island area where power have flickered on and off in a loosing battle with the heat. As for the humidity, well it simply makes a sweltering hot July, unbearable for many or most and an air mass that is equivalent to the equatorial rainforests of Brazil. Ever been to Singapore? Along Saudi Arabia’s coastal areas? Well if you’ve visited New York, Washington, Philadelphia and at times Boston, you’ll have experienced the American equivalent to these truely tropical places this summer.

During a period within the first 10 days of July, we saw an extraordinarily warm and humid air mass build over the Carolinas and Virginia, through a 24, 36 to 48 hour period, we saw highs rise into the 100s, for New York down to Philly, this was the first occurance since August 9, 2001. We saw 4-straight days top 100 at Newark, NJ, tying the all-time record for longest 100 degree streaks. Washington saw 102 degrees whilst Baltimore, MD saw a high of 105 degrees, the hottest in 27 years! Philly warmed twice, like Central Park, New York to over 100 degrees with a peak high at both sites of 103 degrees… Night upon night struggled to cool below 90 degrees by midnight, the humidity simply harnessing the days heat within a skillet-like environment of these large I-95 population center’s. Even Boston saw a high of 100 degrees at Logan International Airport and lows fall to only 77 degrees.

By the close of July came another heatwave, with many days in between warming into the low to mid-90s with upper 60s to generally mid-70 degree dew points that pushed real feels into the low 100s.

Heat Wave two of July, 2010 saw yet more remarkable heat including the highst heat indexes of summer with 111 degrees being reached within Washington DC, Over 112 degrees in Baltimore, 106-110 degrees in Philly and near 110 degrees in New York. Lows once again failed in spots to get below 80 degrees for the morning low with Philadelphia finally recording it’s hottest low ever with 83 degrees, likewise for Atlantic City. Richmond and Norfolk, VA saw two straight afternoon warm to an incredible 105 degrees. For Norfolk this also matched their all-time record on two days in a row…

Why has it been so unrelentlessly hot and so very uncomfortably, stinkingly humid from Washington DC to New York, even up to southern New England including Boston?

1) A very dry spring lead to near drought conditions for many areas across the region.
2) The intensity during winter and now collapse of the El Nino?
3) The warmth of the Atlantic offshore of the Eastern Seaboard?
4) The warm phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and abnormal warmth of SST’s surrounding the Gulf and Atlantic coasts, forcing higher humidity levels.

Perhaps the power of the El Nino (strongest since 97-98) helped jack-up sub-tropical high pressure systems this summer as Europe has been abnormally warm as well as the Eastern US and across parts of Asia.

How many 90 and 100 degree days across the Northeast in July 2010?

Washington DC saw 21 days above 90 degrees, 3 days above 100 degrees. The hottest day was 102 degrees. The site saw 3 nights that remained above 80 degrees with the warmest such night seeing a low of 81 degrees.

Baltimore, Maryland saw 21 days above 90 degrees, an near unprecidented 6 days at or above 100 degrees with the hottest day topping 105 degrees (WARMEST IN 27 YEARS), 4 nights remained above 80 for the low with the warmest being 85 degrees.

Philadelphia, Pennsylvania saw 19 days above 90 degrees and 2 days consecutively above 100 degrees. The hottest day saw a high of 103 degrees. The city also endured 2 nights which remained above 80 with the warmest low being 83 degrees, breaking the old all-time warmest low which was 82 set back during the last time Philly topped 100 which was August, 2001. 

Atlantic City, New Jersey which has it’s official station several miles inland from the Atlantic and warms usually 5-10 degrees higher than the boardwalk. The site at the airport registered 14 days above 90 degrees and 1 day over 100 with the highest reading being 102 degrees. The warmest low saw the warmest ever on record with a minimum temperature of 83 degrees, like Philly, breaking the all-time warmest low which was 82 set back in August 2001.

Newark, New Jersey, typically one of the hottest sites within the New York area endured a gruelling 21 days over 90 degrees and an all-time record tying streak of 4 consecutive days reaching 100 degrees or higher, the warmest being 103 degrees. Newark also saw 3 nights which failed to drop below 80 degrees with the warmest low being 82 degrees with upper 90s still being registered as late as 9pm and 94 degrees as late as 10.30pm. Amazingly, during the hottest day of July 2010 here, this site saw a temperature as high as 95 degrees as early as 9am and incredibly 100 degrees by 10am, it looked as though it was on target to record it’s hottest ever temperature that day. The old high is 105 set back in August, 2001 and some sources were reading Newark at 105 at one point, this was later deemed inaccurate and the official high for the day was apparently 103 degrees.

Central Park in Midtown Manhattan, New York City is often a cool site compared with Newark, New Jersey to the southwest and LaGuardia to the east in Queens but it’s been a hot one here with 16 days reaching at least 90 degrees an an impressive 2 straight days reaching 100 degrees with the hottest topping 103 degrees, just 3 degrees off the all-time record. Amazingly 3 nights within Central Park remained above 80 degree with the warmest low being 81 degrees.


Up into Connecticut, Rhode Island and Massachussetts there was astonishing heat also to be found with Hartford, Connecticut registering a high of 102 degrees and a low of 75 degrees, Providence, Rhode Island also recorded a blistering 102 degrees with minimal relief at night where the warmest low stopped at 75 degrees. In Massachussetts, Boston touched 100 degrees by early afternoon, only to cool substantially throughout the afternoon as a prominant east wind kicked in off the Atlantic bringing late afternoon readings at Logan Airport down into the 80s, little relief was had at night with a low merely falling to a still sticky 77 degrees, remaining in the 80s throughout the overnight hours. To the west, it was even hotter with Westfield, Mass (west of Springfield) recording an impressive 103 degree high and a low of 74 degrees.


You’d think islands out in waters in the very pleasant 60s would stay nice and refreshingly cool, NO!

Those who would do anything to escape the torrid summer heat perhaps headed to the offshore cooling spots such as the islands of Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard off Massachussetts… On the hottest day, even on Martha’s Vineyard there was little relief with a high of 95 degrees, and a low which barely cooled to only 75 degrees. Nantucket Island wasn’t much better with a high reaching 91 degrees, low of 70 degrees. Block Island off Rhode Island wasn’t much cooler than on the Phode Island mainland as the high there peaked at a hot 95 degrees and a low which barely fell overnight, falling to an uncomfortable 73 degrees. 

So, if you can’t escape the blowtorch of the Middle Atlantic states up in southern New England or even on the offshore islands, surely northern New England will be cooler? Unfortunately no, not even New Hampshire was cool. In fact it was a mere 1-degree cooler in Nashua in southern New Hampshire as it was in the Nations Capitol. The high topped a stunning 101 degrees and 100 on two straight days! The city also endured a night were the low only bottomed out at 74 degrees. What amazed me about the heat of Nashua was that it astonishingly saw MORE 90-degree days than in DC, Baltimore, Philly and New York… 22 days this July, Nashua topped at least 90 degrees on 22 days and id be sure that must be by far the warmest ever July in this city!

Concord, NH saw a maximum high of 99 degrees with a warm low of 72 degrees.

The well known “coldspots of New England” also endured hot temps with Berlin, NH topping a high of 94 degrees and a night which only fell to 66 degrees.

Even atop of Mt Washington, over 6,000ft above sea level it warmed to 69 degrees, only 3 degrees shy of the warmest ever reading at the top. 

In Maine highs also warmed into the unusual mid to upper 90-degree territory with Fryeburg reaching 96 degrees and only falling to 71 degrees. Presque Isle is not known for summer heat, especially when you think this site recorded several consecutive days in January 2009 below -45F. It warmed to 91 degrees here and a low fell to a very warm 70 degrees.


Vagaries of the Weather
India & Sub-Continental Asia Weather
By Rajesh Kapadia

Thursday, July 29, 2010

“The low pressure area over northwest and adjoining west central Bay of Bengal off south Orissa and north Andhra Pradesh coasts now lies over north Andhra Pradesh and adjoining south Orissa and south Chhattisgarh. It is likely to move west-northwestwards” – IMD bulletin for Thursday evening.

The low, well marked by now, is at 994 mb. enough to give meaningfull rains along its track.It can deepen a bit more on Friday, before starting its inward journey .

With the movement of the system ,rains could be expected along the path, that is thru North A.P, Orissa, Chattsigarh from Thursday evening and moving into Maharashtra and M.P from Friday. I see concentrated heavy rains in M.P. and Northern Maharashtra regions on Saturday.

Not venturing yet to forecast beyond this point today ! 🙂

Strong south-westerlies are hitting across into the Goa,Karnataka and Kerala coasts since yesterday.Coastal stations in Karnataka have received very heavy rains.Kammardi (Chickmagalur dt.) 170 mms, Kollur (Udupi dt.) and Bhadrachalam 160 mms each, Agumbe 150 mms, Mudibidre (Dakshina Kannada dt.) 140 mms, Shirali 107 mms, Honavar 80 mms. And in Goa, anguem-150, Margao-130, Gaganbawda, Canacona-110each, Pernem, Ponda, Valpoi, Dabolim, Mormugao-100 each, Panjim -90.

As anticipated, now with the weekly monsoon report (as on 28th July), we see the previously “Red” regions in the central states have turned to a favourable “green”

The deficit now drastically reduced to-5%.

Our poll results should end here now, with -5% as the final result. With .37.% voting for this number, we see it in the 1st position as the most voted .

Mumbai, lull (in rains) period seems to be over ! Increase in rains, as the low has crossed the coast in the east. Gradual increase now till the weekend. I see very heavy rains culminating on Sunday/Monday as the system moves in closer to Mumbai.

Trying an experimental detailed Mumbai Forecast:

Friday will be occasionally wet with moderately heavy showers,some prolonged and mostly in the pre noon peroid, about 30 mms.

Saturday will be cloudy, with showers in the afternoon time. Evening may see an odd shower. Rain 25 mms.

But Sunday rains will increase to 35 mms, and peak on Monday, with heavy rains during the daytime, to around 60-75 mms.

(Forecast valid/subject to change if system deviates from expected/estimated lines).

Mumbai Colaba received 59 mms in the 12 hrs till 8.30 pm on Thursday, and S’Cruz 29 mms in the same time gap.

Was a bit taken aback and surprised when i heard thunder around 3.30 pm today in south Mumbai. Was i imagining it, or was it some other urban city noise? Please confirm if anyone had heard thundering ? Recorders of “thunder in Mumbai” please clarify ?


What’s Reaching Today’s Blogs?

PREDICT to Investigate Hurricane Origination and Behavior
The Northeast Quadrant

Thursday Update
Frank Strait, AccuWeather

Not All the Weather is Quiet
Joe Lundburg, AccuWeather

Pennsylvania’s Big Severe Weather Week
Jesse Ferrell, AccuWeather

Today’s US Extremes
Courtesy of AccuWeather

High: 119 degrees at Death Valley, CA
Low: 37 degrees West Yellowstone, MT

Today’s UK Extremes
Courtesy of the Met Office

High: 76 degrees at Solent
Low: 46 degrees at Yeovilton

Today’s Extremes here at my house

High: 73 degrees
Low: 53 degrees

Generally cloudy during the morning, breaking for partly cloudy skies and good spells of warm sun by afternoon. Warmest day in weeks!

Thanks for reading.

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