>COULD WE SEE BONNIE DEVELOP THIS WEEK?

Written by on July 5, 2010 in Rest of Europe with 0 Comments

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DUE TO TECHNICAL ISSUES, I AM UNABLE TO UPLOAD A VIDEO TODAY, BUT SHALL ATTEMPT TO DO SO TOMORROW!

The latest from AccuWeather.com
Monitoring a Tropical Wave in the Western Caribbean
Jul 4, 2010 10:39 PM

There are no organized tropical weather systems within the Atlantic Basin at this time, although there are a few areas of interest.

An area of low pressure now centered about 125 miles south of the central Louisiana coast has become a little better organized. The small and compact system has shown some signs of obtaining a low level circulation over the last 12 hours, however, it is being affected by strong wind shear out of the north. This will inhibit any substantial organization through Monday. Though wind shear is forecasted to lessen a bit over the next 12-24 hours, this low will then move inland over the central Gulf Coast on Monday, ending any threat of tropical development.

Another more substantial area of interest is a broad area of vigorous thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea that is linked to an easterly tropical wave. This area of disturbed weather is being has shown some signs of organization over the last 6 hours and a low level circulation center may be forming. Observations from the northwest Caribbean have shown some decrease in surface pressures earlier this afternoon. Meanwhile, some buoy and ship observations have recorded tropical storm force winds over the last few hours. Atmospheric conditions appear favorable for development as the wave is located in an area of light wind shear and very warm sea surface temperatures. The latest global computer forecast information suggests this wave will move across the Yucatan Peninsula and emerge into southwestern Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday with the potential for further organization during the middle of next week. Longer range computer models are taking this system through the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and potentially towards either South Texas or Northeast Mexico.

We will also continue to monitor a large area of disturbed weather east of Florida in the vicinity of a stationary frontal boundary. This area of thunderstorms is not forecasted to organize further as the stationary front remains in place over the area. Earlier in the week, some computer models showed the potential for organization, but that doesn’t look to be the case now. Nonetheless, we will continue to monitor this area.

Last, a strong tropical wave is located just east of the Lesser Antilles. This wave is marked by clusters of moderate to strong convection. This system will bring the Leeward, northern Windward, and Virgin Islands gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall tonight through early Tuesday. Any development of this system will be slow during this time. However, conditions might become more favorable for development of this system once it reaches the central Caribbean later in the week.

By AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Brian Edwards

Latest from the National Hurricane Center
Homepage: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
…SPECIAL FEATURE…

AT 0300 UTC…A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN


ALONG 82W FROM CUBA JUST W OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO PANAMA.


SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 15N79W


TO 21N81W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 18N-21N


BETWEEN 81W-85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE


WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 12N77W TO 15N82W WITH SIMILAR ACTIVITY


INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA. SYSTEM HAS


CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS AND THERE ARE NO


SIGNS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER…ENVIRONMENTAL


CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND A


TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS


THIS SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AT 8 TO 13


KT. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL


CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT…


LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE


CAYMAN ISLANDS…THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE NORTHWESTERN


CARIBBEAN SEA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

READ IN FULL HERE

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