>HAS ALEX SET THE TONE OF 2010?

Written by on July 2, 2010 in Rest of Europe with 0 Comments

>There has never been as much hype, anticipation, concern or warning about a hurricane season and certainly one must now wonder after we saw the Atlantic’s first June hurricane since 1996 and the second strongest ever June Atlantic hurricane, has Alex provided tangable evidence that a bad year is brewing and folks living within the hurricane zone to be ready and prepare now?

The evidence is out there with abnormally warm seas across the tropical Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico and the actual lowering of sea surface pressures over these very warm waters strongly suggest development chances are about as high as they’ll ever be…

This blog which is part of Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan will supply you daily blog posts and links to all the best Hurricane information out there to keep you up to speed with what’s happening as it’s happening. I shall also provide you with personalised forecasts of impending storms, where I think their heading and how strong they’ll become. I shall also, ALWAYS provide you with the official forecasts and information provided by the National Hurricane Center and also of AccuWeather and The Weather Channel.

Stay Tuned! 

IMAGE COURTESY OF ACCUWEATHER

Latest from AccuWeather
Tropical Rainstorm Alex Weakens, New Area of Interest off Florida Coast.
Jul 2, 2010 11:51 AM

Tropical Rainstorm Alex no longer has a defined circulation and is continuing to lose strength as it remains over central Mexico. Alex will produce 1 to 2 additional inches of rain across parts of northern and central Mexico through Friday with flash flooding and mudslides the main continuing threats.

A low pressure system associated with a frontal boundary sitting just off the panhandle of Florida will start to move westward during the next 24-48 hours. While the chance of development is extremely low, we will be closely monitoring as this feature begins to make its way into the Gulf of Mexico for any signs of tropical development.

With the exception of the feature off the Florida coast, the rest of the Atlantic remains quiet as no tropical development is expected over the next 48 hours.

By AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Donald Pillittere

CLICK HERE FOR THE ACCUWEATHER HURRICANE HOME

FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI JUL 02 2010


TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA…CENTRAL


AMERICA…GULF OF MEXICO…CARIBBEAN SEA…NORTHERN SECTIONS


OF SOUTH AMERICA…AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST


FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED


ON SATELLITE IMAGERY…METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS…WEATHER


OBSERVATIONS…AND RADAR.


BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY


THROUGH 1700 UTC…




…TROPICAL WAVES…


TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N41W TO 5N43W MOVING W 15-20 KT.


BROAD CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS SEEN ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS IN VISIBLE


SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WAVE ALSO LIES AHEAD OF A MAXIMUM IN DEEP


LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.


SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N


BETWEEN 39W-46W.


TROPICAL WAVE IS ACROSS VENEZUELA/COLOMBIA ALONG 70W/71W S OF


11N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. CYCLONIC FLOW IS EVIDENT IN THE


LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD ACROSS LAND. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED


STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 71W-73W.


…THE ITCZ…


ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 6N29W 9N36W 7N40W 10N46W


5N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM


5N-12N BETWEEN 15W-20W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN


25W-30W…AND FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 30W-33W. AN EMBEDDED SURFACE


TROUGH IS ALONG 36W FROM 7N-12N. NO DEEP CONVECTION ACCOMPANIES


THE TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 140


NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 46W-57W.




…DISCUSSION…


THE GULF OF MEXICO…


AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN THE ERN UNITED STATES


SEABOARD HAS PUSHED INTO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A


FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS OF 1500 UTC…A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE


W ATLC ACROSS NRN FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH TO A 1016 MB LOW


NEAR 29N85W WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING W OF THE LOW TO


CENTRAL COASTAL LOUISIANA. RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES ISOLATED


SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH


SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE


AXIS. STRONGER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO MOVING INLAND


ACROSS THE TEXAS COASTLINE. THESE SHOWERS MAY BE ENHANCED BY 20


KT SE WINDS ACROSS THE WRN GULF CONVERGING ALONG THE TEXAS


COASTLINE. 20 KT CYCLONIC WINDS ARE ALSO NEAR THE LOW PRESSURE


CENTER IN THE FAR NERN GULF. WHILE THIS FRONTAL LOW IS


BAROCLINIC IN NATURE…IT IS BEING MONITORED FOR ANY SIGNS OF


TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO


DRIFT WWD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ALOFT…AN UPPER LEVEL


RIDGE COVERS THE BASIN CENTERED OVER SRN TEXAS NEAR 29N98W.


EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA


INFLUENCED BY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND TROPICAL MOISTURE


ADVECTING TOWARD FLORIDA FROM THE SE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA…


AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO


NICARAGUA CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE NW CARIBBEAN TODAY. IT


CURRENTLY SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL


BAHAMAS ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N78W TO NEAR ERN HONDURAS AT 16N83W.


THE COMBINATION OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS


ENHANCING NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN


FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 76W-87W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO


ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 80W-84W…AND FROM


9N-13N BETWEEN 75W-79W. THIS ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENCE


ALOFT BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND UPPER


LEVEL RIDGING COVERING THE ERN HALF OF THE BASIN. SURFACE


CONVERGENCE NEAR AN EXTENSION OF THE ITCZ ACROSS PANAMA MAY ALSO


BE AIDING THE CONVECTION. ACTIVITY IN THIS AREA IS LIKELY TO


REMAIN AS A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS VENEZUELA/COLOMBIA ALONG


70W/71W APPROACHES THE SW CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE…A FEW ISOLATED


SHOWERS ARE FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 62W-68W WITH CLEAR WEATHER


PREVAILING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE E CARIBBEAN.


THE ATLANTIC OCEAN…


SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE WRN ATLC W OF


65W. SOME OF THE ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY A COLD FRONT THAT


ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 31N72W TO THE NRN FLORIDA COAST


SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN THE ERN


SEABOARD INTO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH


EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN


SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM NEAR 26N73W TO CENTRAL CUBA AND


INTO THE CARIBBEAN. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES HAS DRAWN


SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE WRN BASIN. ACROSS THE CENTRAL


ATLC…A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ERN CARIBBEAN


ALONG 69W SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL


TROUGHS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING TO THE E NEAR 24N59W.


THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SUPPORTING A FEW ISOLATED


SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N-29N BETWEEN 62W-66W…AND FROM


25N-28N BETWEEN 56W-58W. FARTHER E…SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES


ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 34N44W PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR


WEATHER ACROSS THE E ATLC. A DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS E OF 45W


ACCOMPANIED BY DUST S OF 25N EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE


IMAGERY. ALOFT…AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED NEAR 16N45W


WITH A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CANARY


ISLANDS TO NEAR 24N31W.


FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE
$$
WALTON

CLICK HERE FOR THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HOMEPAGE

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