>2 July, 2010

Written by on July 2, 2010 in Rest of Europe with 0 Comments

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Mark Vogan’s Video-Blog for Friday, 2 Jul, 2010

Today’s Top Weather Stories
On Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan

Hurricane Alex brings floods to north-east Mexico
BBC Weather

Weakened Alex Continues to Produce Devastating Flooding
AccuWeather News

Heat Returns for the Holiday
The Weather Channel

June 2010: Records and Notables
The Weather Channel

Wildfire Burning near Las Vegas Destroys Homes
AccuWeather News

your america today forecast
by mark vogan

northeast & mid-atlantic
After glorious sunny days beneath the cool, Canadian high which produced low humidity and highs only of around 80 from DC to New York, will start to abate and the blowtorch over the Southwest up into the Dakotas will start it’s eastward journey towards the East Coast. This will air, presently controlling the Northeast will be history within 48 hours and we will see upper 90s rather than 80 impact the I-95 by July 4th.
Today will mark the start to the warming trend with 84 forecasted for DC, Baltimore, Philadelphia to New York City under once again stunningly clear and sunny skies, a high of 77 is forecasted up in Boston. Tonight should squeeze out another night in the 60s for all the major cities, but from now on in, lows will only drop at best into the low to mid-70s, starting tomorrow night… so enjoy tonight’s last evening where the AC can be rested and those windows thrown open for a comfortable night’s sleep. Lows within 3-4 days may be WARMER than the highs seen yesterday and today throughout the cities…. some of the warmest readings since 2002 may be acheived early next week
southeast & florida
After those gruelling hot, humid days through much of June. The region is generally not too bad to start July as a front has managed to push the hottest, most humid air down across southern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia and with the presense of the front, strong thunderstorms will persist off and on as tropical air flows up from the very warm Gulf waters and hits up against the front. The presense of clouds and rain will hold highs to the low to mid-80s from Houston eastward through New Orleans, Mobile into Pensacola, it will feel muggy with mid-70 degree dew points and your likely to see rain today. Lows tonight are uniformly in the mid to upper 70s with again an 80-82 degree low for places like Bootheville and Grand Isle, La where these spots sit right on the warm waters edge, North of the front (Jackson, MS, Montgomery, AL) you should have sunnier skies with perhaps only a 30-40% rain/storm chance today, even further north and east, those chances drop below 20% for places such as Atlanta today. Highs will be between 85-90 degrees for most  central and northern cities of the southern states with relatively low humidity as the High is of more northern origin, thus drier air from the north covers cities like Raleigh-Durham, Atlanta and across to Birmingham and Memphis. Lows tonight under clear, calm skies and a much drier than typical air mass will drop temps into the 60s from far northern Alabama through north Georgia and even 50s across interior South and North Carolina! Atlanta may have a low of 65, Raleigh Durham, 58 degrees tonight, turn off that AC and let the cooling breeze into your home, sorry what month is it?!!! 
The heat continues across the West with the hottest air found directly between Laughlin, Nevada and Phoenix, AZ where highs are likely to be warmest in the nation like they were yesterday with top temps by 2-4pm this afternoon reaching 112-116 degrees. It could top 115-117 along the lower Colorado River Valley at towns such as Needles, Bullhead City etc. Highs in the northern deserts from Las Vegas westward towards Baker and Barstow will be a little lower due to higher elevation and slightly lower pressure aloft, even still, we should still see highs reach between 105-110 degrees. Death Valley should top around 117 degrees despite it being i a region that would see lower highs than further south, but it’s thanks this valley’s unique geography of 282 feet below sea level and surrounded by 12,000 ft mountains, which blocks out marine influence. At 2,030ft above sea level, Las Vegas will see another hot day with a high expected to top 107 degrees.

Where can you find cooling relief? Go to the coast.. After a morning in the upper 50s to around 60 with fog and cloud, skies will clear and the sea breeze will kick in, highs will be in the mid to upper 60s and low 70s all the way up the California coast. Downtown LA will see highs top around 75 after morning startus peels back to the beaches and a morning low of between 58-61 degrees. The Imland Empire will see highs into the 90s for areas such as Riverside and 100s to the east into the low desert. Palm Springs to Palm Desert should warm to around 108 today. Lows tonight range from 58 at the beach, 60 in LA, 65 at Riverside, 75 at Palm Springs and 80+ for Death Valley, Las Vegas and Phoenix, spots such as Laughlin, NV may see a low of 90.
A cool pocket of air returns from the Pacific will allow for mostly sunny skies but a cool day across the PNW with highs barely topping 65 for both Seattle to Portland. The heat will be concentrated down between Redding, Calif and Salt Lake where the Four Coners risge still dominates. The high should warm to 95 for both Salt Lake, UT and Redding, CA. Even east of the Cascades, highs will only warm to 63 at Spokane with rain showers likely and 71 for a high at Great Falls, MT with a thunderstorm possible, however eastern Montana will be under the influence of the heat pumping up from the deserts, highs only in the 60s for the north and western side of Montana but 90s to even 100s will effect southeast Montana, that is a 40 to near 50-degree temperature spread! Tonight will be cool with highs ranging from a crisp 50 along the coastal plain, 40s and even 30s for the Cascades and 40s across the interior PNW.
northern plains
Ridging over the central US continues to pump Southwest desert air up through the Dakotas today, whilst air drives southbound to the east over the Great Lakes and Northeast, A large seperation exists from the western Dakotas where highs reach the upper 90s and some places are likely to top 100 today, including Pierre, South Dakota and Bismarck, North Dakota, whilst further east, though skies are equally as sunny, much of Minnesota will be under the infleunce of the Canadian High Pressure Cell which dominates the Midwest, Lakes and Northeast at present and is much more comfortably warm and dry holding daytime highs in the 80s across Minnesota, down into Wisconsin, northern Illinois on into the Ohio Valley, and towards Washington DC. Some spots have seen highs only in the 70s the past few days including Chicago.

So, today should see Rapid City top 96, Bismarck 100, Minot 100, International Falls 86, Minneapolis 86 and a very nice 82 for Chicago. Tonight lows range from a cool 64 at Rapid City, 70 at Minot, 78 at Aberdeen and Fargo, 70 at Minneapolis and a very pleasant 62 down in Chicago! 
southern plains
The remnants of Hurricane Alex continues to produce heavy rains across most of Texas and Oklahoma today bringing with it a very juicing air off the mid-80 degree waters of the northern Gulf, all the moisture and clouds today will hold highs only to the low and mid-80s throughout Texas which is some 5-10 below normal for early July. It’s likely to feel stinkingly uncomfortable from Laredo where this mornings dew point is at 80 degrees, 79 at Brownsville, 78 at Corpus Christi, 77 at Houston and even 72 at Dallas. Highs today will merely top the low 70s up in Amarillo! 83 at El Paso, 83 in Austin and only 83 in Houston. Lows tonight should range from around 65 at Amarillo, 75 at Dallas and a typical 78 at Houston. All of the coastal Texas towns from Galveston to Brownsville should fail to drop below 80 degrees. 

Today’s Weather across America
From AccuWeather

Damaging Thunderstorms in Montana, Drenching Gulf Coast Downpours

Watching Central Gulf Coast for Tropical Development

Weather Talk
By Mark Vogan

String of 80s continue for southeast England, 25 degree temperature spread this afternoon

London has certainly seen simply glorious weather which ended June and began July with persistent 80-degree days and more often than not, sunshine has been in abundance. Apparently London seen a low overnight and into this morning around 66 degrees, of course it was likely hovering in the low 70s right up until midnight before the drop off. The heat always holds on longer in cities thanks to all the concrete.

When looking at the forecast for London, it could almost resemble a forecast for somewhere closer to the Med Sea as the BBC shows for the next 5 days, mostly sunny skies and highs in the upper 70s to around 80.

Thurs: 82 at Santon Downham
Wed: 80 at Heathrow
Tues: 83 at Heathrow
Mon: 84 at Charlwood
Sun: 88 at Gravesend
Sat: 83 at Charlwood
Fri: 82 at Heathrow

Thursday’s max was 79 at Charlwood.

As you can see from the maximum highs above for the UK courtesy of the BBC, the southeast has been the focus of the not only very warm weather but PERISTENTLY warm weather which is more often than not a rarity here. The south of England often does enjoy a taste of better, warmer weather with their more southerly latitude able to just tap the outer boundaries of the semi-permanent Azores high which often the north of England and Scotland can’t.. That’s why us pale skinned northerners tend to spend lots of money to get beneath that warm blanket of air in one of the countless sunspots of southern Europe.

Whilst the centre of the warmest air was concentrated in south and southeast London where it appears the warmest reading was reported at Gravesend in Kent at 85 degrees, what caught my eye was the temperature only 96.2 miles to the northwest in Benson, Oxfordshire, where it was only 67 degrees and cloudy. Even shorter of a distance was Shoreham’s 69, of course this was a direct result of cooler air flow onshore off the Channel. It was also slightly cooler to the north of London with Heathrow sitting at 75 degrees. Although it was 173 miles to the southwest of Gravesend, Isle of Portland which sticks out into the English Channel sat at a chilly 60 degrees, a solid 25 degrees cooler than Gravesend. St Catherines Point was at 63 degrees… All these numbers at the same time Gravesend was at 85 degrees…

As for Scotland, skies were cloudy for the most part, however there was decent temperature spreads up here also. Glen Ogle, between Stirling and Crainlarich was at 56 degrees whilst Leuchers on Fife’s east coast was at 73 degrees at 2am. Wind gusts were reported to 48 mph out of the south as of that hour at Glen Ogle, likely making that 56 feel cooler! Windchill?

There is a slight cooling trend to commence after today with highs expected to max out around 79 tomorrow and slowly creep into the mid-70s, but hey, it could be a lot worse couldn’t it.

Yeh, you could live in Lennoxtown, Scotland, were it’s raining at this moment!!

Vagaries of the Weather
India & Sub-Continental Asia Weather
By Rajesh Kapadia

Friday, Jul 2, 2010

The Upper Air Circulation which formed over the bay, has now, as an UAC, started moving inland. As seen in the clouding imagery, the system now seems to be over the Chattisgarh/Vidharbh region. I am unable to locate this system as a low at MSLP.

TheThai MSLP map (as of Friday evening), nor the latest IMD map show anything in terms of the system coming to sea level as a low.

This (UAC) may move westwards across Central India, i.e. North Maharashtra and thence to Gujarat. Observing the moisture attracting capacity of this, we can expect very good rainfall activity from Friday thru Sunday over areas from Vidharbh to North Maharashtra, Gujarat and rest of central India.In fact regions of the Maharashtra section have recieved rains ranging from 30-80 mms.

On its path, i foresee an incursion of moisture from the Arabian Sea into Gujarat and onto the west coast north of Mumbai.South Coastal Gujarat regions, areas from Surat to Porbunder and the gulf of Cambay, could recieve rainfall upto 200-250 mms Saturday thru Sunday.

Good, heavy rains upto 100-125 mms, could be expected elsewhere in east Gujarat and Saurashtra, and in North madhya Maharastra and Marathwada regions.

A deficit Saurashtra could get good relief from this rainfall.

Mumbai, should get heavy rains on Saturday, as the UAC moves westwards. On Saturday, the city can expect rainfall at regular intervals, with some very heavy falls, throughout the day, with rainfall amounting to around 70-80 mms.Observing the movement of the circulation, I feel Mumbai rainfall will decrease from Sunday evening, about 25-35 mms on Sunday, as the system moves west, and weakens.

Just to mention, there have been 2/3 previous occasions in the last 9 years, when an upper air circulation at 850 hpa has been reported to stay put in Gujarat region for upto 5 days. Due to a sudden burst of moisture from the Arabian Sea, it maintained its strenght, and even continued to pour heavy rains in Gujarat and coastal regions.

However, advancement of monsoon beyond East Uttar Pradesh, even with the help of a predicted cyclonic circulation is doubtful.This system is short lived, and is expected to whizz past the central and western areas fast, within 3 days.

Read our Partner’s blog in full HERE

What’s Reaching Today’s Blogs?

4th of July Weather Details

Paul Douglas Weather Blog, Founder of WeatherNation

NEQ Friday Review, V.9
The Northeast Quadrant

Flash Flooding, Severe Storms, Heat Wave and Possible Tropical Depression Development.
Henry Margusity, AccuWeather

Today’s Extremes here at my house

High: 71 degrees
Low: 57 degrees

A generally cloudy day with outbreaks of sunshine at times, a stiff breeze persisted out of the south.

Thanks for reading.

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