>23 June, 2010

Written by on June 23, 2010 in Rest of Europe with 0 Comments

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Today’s Top Weather Stories
On Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan

Floods in north-east Brazil kill dozens of people
BBC Weather

Healthy Tropical Disturbance Roams the Caribbean
The Weather Channel

BP Preparing for Potential Hurricane in Gulf
AccuWeather News

Earthquake shakes Ontario and Quebec
Toronto Star

Tropical Storm Darby, Hurricane Celia in the Eastern Pacific
AccuWeather News

your america today forecast
by mark vogan

southern plains
A hot day, though cooler and stormier across the Gulf Coast as storm likelihood tops 50% down around the Houston-Galveston area. Inland across Texas those storm chances almost drop completely. Skies will be clear and temps HOT with expected highs to top the upper 90s to low 100s throughout central and northern Texas today. Dallas should top 100 agai! Low around 80.
northern plains
The region from the N. Plains to Upper Midwest can be split into two this Wednesday. Sunshine and pleasant temps in and around 80 from the Dakotas, whilst it’s yet again more storms, some of which could be severe in spots of Minnesota down into the Ohio Valley later today! Highs will top around 80 for Bismarck whilst storms are expected to dampen the show in the Twin Cities with a high around 76 degrees. Chicago to St Louis will feel the heat today with upper 90s and a run at 100 for a sun baked, St Louis, whilst Chicago will see storms roll through today but it won’t be cool that’s for sure, Chicagoans may warm towards 93 today. For St Louis, dew points in the 70s will make the 98 feel closer to 110, so an excessive heat warning is in place there, take it easy!. Lows tonight may struggle to fall to 80 for SL… Chicago’s lows around 74, wehilst it’s 60s for Twin Cities and a very comfortable 50s for the Dakotas.
northeast
The Northeast will be another beautifu place today, though perhaps a little on the hot side across the DC to Baltimore area where the high may take a run at 87-98 today! Upper 80s to low 90s for NYC and mid to upper 80s for Boston… Lows throughout the Northeast range from near 80 in DC, upper 70s for Philly and low to mid 70s for NYC, around 68 for Boston.
southwest
Each and every day now is sunny, cloudless and hot in Phoenic, however it will be noticeably hotter with a high expected to hit 110 today. around 105 for Las Vegas and perhaps near 115 for Death Valley. DV, Las Vegas and Phoenix may struggle to cool to 80 tonight..
northwest
Today will be a glorious sunny day with highs likely topping Seattle’s warmest of 2010. High there should top 76. Portland may see mid 80s. A range from mid 70s to mid-80s and mostly sunny skies will prevail across the interior PNW in Montana and down into Idaho with indeed 60s in higher elevations. Salt Lake may run at 90 this afternoon whilst Denver will enjoy around 85. Lows tonight, range from mid to upper 60s for towns and cities of low elevation, 40s and 50s for rural areas and high elevation plateaus.
southeast
For you folks in the Southeast it’s the same old drill.. It will be a hot, humid day with storms today concentrated down along the Gulf Coast as the ridge sits parked and dominant over Texas, Points further north into northern LA, MS, AL, GA and the Carolinas will see abundant sun and low storm chances, therefore highs are likely to near 95 for Atlanta. The clockwise air flow spinning around the Texas centered high is allowing moisture in and with the collision with intense surface warming like we see now across the Southeast, Gulf Coast areas from Houston to Florida will see a 40-50%, even higher thunderstorm chance today. Highs right along the Gulf will be lower due to more cloudiness associated with the moisture and thunderstorm cooling with a range from around 89-92 from Houston to New Orleans to Pensacola. Though storms will impact Florida, this is more sea breeze converangence triggered and we will see highs throughout Florida run into the mid to even upper 90s as high pressure builds, creating very dangerous heat indexes as dew points run well into the mid-70s and even upper 70s in coastal communities that are near 90-degree waters of the Gulf!

Lows will be very uniform throughout the Southeast with only humidity being higher nearer to the coast you go. Mid to upper 70s will be the lows across the board with perhaps an 80 for Tampa and Miami.

Today’s Weather across America
From AccuWeather

VIDEO: Tropical Discussion: Celia and Darby in East Pacific; Atlantic Storm?
AccuWeather

Bastardi: Extreme, Scorching Weather through August
AccuWeather

Locally Violent Thunderstorms Wednesday Night, Thursday
AccuWeather

Big East Heat to Break with Big Thunderstorms Thursday
AccuWeather

Weather Talk
By Mark Vogan

LONDON, ENGLAND MAY TOP 30C!

It appears the warmth is continuing to build across the southern half of Britain.. After a dreary, dull and showery day, though we didn’t recieve much rainfall, enough to sprinkle on the ground as a frontal system tries to push southeast from the outer Hebrides into the central belt of Scotland. It’s drizzling as I type this.

Down south of the border it was all about the sunshine and warming temps. Highs are very likely to warm towards the highest of 2010 so far either tomorrow or Friday and if London tops 30C or 86 degrees, this would mark the warmest in the UK so far in 2010! We shall see, stay tuned for more updates on the heat in Britain.

Note to Scots and Irish: We will see the return to sunshine within the next day or so, highs in the mid-70s? 

Vagaries of the Weather
India & Sub-Continental Asia Weather
By Rajesh Kapadia

Wednesday, June 23, 2010

The positive point of todays blog is the fixation and firm position of the monsoon axis,along the Punjab,North M.P.and Jharkhand route.The mere refusal of the axis to shift North is a very encouraging sign, and could allow the formation of a low in the Bay, and allow it to travel along its “line”.

Thankfully, we can forget about the “break Monsoon” in that case.

IMD predicts that “an upper air cyclonic circulation may form over west-central and adjoining coastal areas of north Andhra Pradesh and south Orissa”.

The system could transform into a low-pressure area over central Bay by as early as Thursday. The system would head westward along the axis line, over land and might inter act with a prevailing W.D. coming Eastwards from Thursday. The actual interaction region would definitely see good precipitations and advancement of the Monsoon,and go on to set up clouds over further northwest,

The low, on crossing land (could be by Friday), will, in all probibilities, form a North-south trough from the centre of the low thru maharashtra Southwards upto the interiors of Karnataka.Northern peninsula could possibly experaiance widespread rainfall till Monday.

But,the CPC sees the revival of the monsoon covering the entire peninsula,during the week ending June 28.

The existing trough off the west coast is precipitating rains,in its limited capacity.All this due to the stubborn mosoon axis in the North not allowing yesterday’s UAC to cross the land.

As discussed in yesterday’s blog, the rainfall amounts along the West coast, were much less than originally estimated, save and except the Mumbai coastal regions,which recieved heavy rains.In the Konkan region, only the the Mumbai coast region,has recorded the highest rains.Thane Belapur 17cms,Thane 13cms,Mumbai Colaba 12cms,Dharavi 11cms and Uran 9cms.Even the ghats did not recieve much rains, just between 2-4cms.

Mumbai: Yesterday’s revised rain estimates of reduced rains in the Konkan proved correct, but Mumbai turned out to an exceptional “iso;lated wet spot”.

As an exception for Mumbai, Vagaries of the Weather original forecast for Wednesday, the forecast published on 20th.June blog,was accurate, with the rain intensity increasing from Tuesday night. Wednesday was a rainy day, with 60 mms at Colaba and 44 mms at Santa Cruz of rain in the day.On revision, the estimate was scaled down to 30mms yesterday.

Overnight Tuesday rain was 123mms in Colaba and 87 mms in Santa Cruz.

Heavy showers, some prolonged, will continue into thursday morning, with rains decreasing in frequency later after friday.Thursday thru Friday should total upto 100 mms of rain for the 2 days.

Seems as of now, weekend rains will reduce to 25-30mms per day, with sunny patches.

Hot Night: Gwalior recorded a minimum temperature of 36.4c yesterday night(22nd. June). One of the hottest on record anywhere, I suppose.The nearest i know is the 38c recorded as the minimum at Sibi(pakistan) a few years back. The hottest night, in my record books, was at Khandwa. the lowest the mercury could go down to was 40c !!

What’s Reaching Today’s Blogs?

Possible Tornado With Pennsylvania Severe Thunderstorms
JesseFerrell, AccuWeather

Today’s US Extremes
Courtesy of AccuWeather

High: 114 degrees at Death Valley, CA
Low: 27 degrees at Big Piney, WY

Today’s UK Extremes
Courtesy of the Met Office

High: 82 degrees at Gravesend (Kent)
Low: 43 degrees at Trawsgoed (Wales)

Today’s Extremes here at my house

High: 70 degrees
Low: 59 degrees

TODAY’S COND
An overall cloudy day with patchy drizzle and a few sprinkles here and there. A mild day though with a high still topping 70 degrees despite the cloud cover and very little outbreak of sun through the afternoon.

Thanks for reading.
-Mark

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