>22 June, 2010

Written by on June 22, 2010 in Rest of Europe with 0 Comments

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Today’s Top Weather Stories
On Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan

Bastardi Ups Hurricane Season Forecast to 18-21 Storms
AccuWeather News

Temperatures Scorch from Central and South Asia to North Africa
AccuWeather News

Ghana’s army and navy battle deadly Accra floods
BBC Weather

Thousand people missing in north-east Brazil floods
BBC Weather

Wimbledon weather forecast
BBC Weather

your america today forecast
by mark vogan

southeast
Today marks a slight change across the region as the powerful high shifts ever so slightly west, baking the heart of Texas and allowing more thunderstorms to pop in a more widespread fashion, lowering highs today around 90 for New Orleans, Montgomery to Atlanta. Morning storms blew around New Orleans this was thanks to moisture being able to push into the central Gulf coast area as the high has shifted west. Atlanta, Hi near 90 with PM storms, Lo 72. New Orleans, Hi 90, Lo 76. Stormy through today. It will still feel hot and very humid but at least the numbers are down by around 5 degrees and there is a higher chance of rainfall and cooling downdrafts from thunderstorms in the area. Take care though!
northeast
Today the Mid-Atlantic has a high storm chance around the DC to Philly area. Highs range from 95 in DC to Baltimore, around 90 for Philadelphia and north of south Jersey, southeast PA, skies will be only partly cloudy with less styorm risk. Highs will top out at around 83 for New York, perhaps 85 for Newark, NJ and perhaps a comfortable day in Boston with partly cloudy skies and a high around 78. Lows tonight range from the mid-70s in DC, around 70 for New York and mid-60s for Boston.
southwest
The ridge will show signs on the ground that’s it’s building as surface readings will reflect this in the low lying desert communities. High may take a run at 110-degrees in Phoenix today whilst Las Vegas takes a run at 100, though it may fall just shy with a forecast high of around 98-99. Palm Springs will enjoy a warm day with highs around 106 there whilst in Death Valley I expect a high of around 110. Across the Great Basin the sunshine will be strong and in abundance whilst clouds will be few and far between. 80s to near 90 will impact the Salt Lake area, whilst sun and a high of 88 is expected for Reno. Looking for cooler air? As always, head to the beaches as highs should remain in the more comfortable 70s, even 60s for the central coast of Calif and northward to the PNW beaches. Morning clouds and fog should burn by 11-12pm and winds will increase off the ocean. LA should see a high around 80 whilst San Francisco will top around 70. Night lows will range from the 50s on the beaches, around 60 for Los Angeles and inland valleys and canyons, 70s for the deserts and low 80s for downtown Phoenix, near 75 for the Vegas Strip!
southern plains
Texas and OK will bake in the relentless heat torturing this state. 100s for north-central Texas, upper 90s for Houston and inland areas, low 90s for the upper Texas coast (but extremely humid, dew points near 80 degrees) and upper 90s for West Texas, low 90s for S. Texas! Lows tonight range from low 80s from Galveston to Corpus Cristi, 78 for Houston, 80 for Dalass and mid to upper 70s everywhere else. Highs should range from 95 to 100 across much of Oklahoma, Kansas and into Missouri.
northwest
Today, the Northwest will enjoy more sunshine and warmer temps with highs ranhing from the low to near mid-70s for Seattle, low 80s for Portland and this will be uniform even east of the Cascades with perhaps upper 80s in some spots in far eastern Oregon and Washington. Indeed Seattle has still to see it’s first 75-degree day, this is the latest on record there, may they will it today or tomorrow? Tonight, skies remain mostly clear and winds should be light, lows across the board should be in the 50s west and east of the mountains with 40s in the mountains.
northern plains
A hot and sunny day across the Northern Plains as the high finally expands north from Texas and allows highs to near 90 for Minneapolis and Chicago, however PM storms due to daytime heating are likely to be triggered. North Dakota should warm under sunny skies to around 80 degrees with lesser storm risk than to the east over Minnesota, Illinois and Wisconsin. Lows range from 50s and 60s across North Dakota, near 70 for rural South Dakota (72-74 for cities). around 70 for rural MN, WI, IL whilst the cities of Minneapolis and Chicago may only cool to around 78. Down in St Louis and Kansas City highs today under a muggy sun will warm to around 100, lows should fall to around 80. T-storm risk will be low..
Today’s Weather across America
From AccuWeather

TROPICAL UPDATE
Atlantic Tropical Storm/Hurricane Formation Possible by the End of June
AccuWeather

100-Degree Heat May Follow Record Warm Spring
AccuWeather

Fire Threat Remains High in Southwest; Flagstaff Fire Grows
AccuWeather

Weather Talk
By Mark Vogan

THE STAGE IS SET ACROSS BRITAIN FOR ONE VERY WARM AND DRY JULY AND LIKELY, AUGUST
Mark Vogan predicts 80s for Scotland, Ireland & Wales, 90s for England within the next 2-3 weeks

You were informed back several months ago now of the warm and DRY summer your going to have here in Britain. So far things have been fairly warm and without a doubt, DRY. Apparently it was in the news yesterday about the dry conditions across Britain. Hose pipes bans was something I was holding back from mentioning, but now I believe it’s very possibly we face hose pipe bans in some areas of Britain come mid-July into August as wet weather systems will become harder and harder to bring across to us as the high is beginning to “lockdown” That means a constant/regular feed of warm, dry air will push up from the Azores and bring us persistent warmth. We may still see short periodic reductions in pressure heights which may allow cooler air and precipitation in, which may not bad a bad thing, but this will be few and far between occurances I think.

We had a “light rain shower” in the forecast for Wednesday, now it’s gone and been replaced by “grey cloud”. The original high was forecasted at 68 degrees (20C) for tomorrow, now it’s up to 70 degrees (21C), if it actually becomes sunny, that number may be conservative. Today it was another warm day with mostly sunny skies and a high of 75 degrees, those lawns are becoming drier and drier and as the heat begins to build as we will noticably see over the next 2-4 week period, Unwatered lawns will become brown and scorched and bodies of water will shrink! The feedback of dry soils to help raise pressure heights aloft is very noticable when it comes to surface warmth through time, which we will all experience.

Yes, now we’re seeing luckwarm temps, 70s for the north half of Britain and a flirt with 80 in the south. These numbers are going to warm markedly and a lot of that will be thanks to the drying out of soils as well as other factors in the greater overall pattern which stems back to last winter.

I forecast the region from Glasgow to Fort William to Aviemore to Edinburgh to experience highs that will near or top 80 degrees (28C) as well as points from Dumfries to Selkirk to Greta, between now and Jul 10 with somewhere topping 82-83 degrees (28-29C).

A region from Penrith to Preston will see highs top 86 degrees (30C) between now and Jul 10 and between Preston to Manchester to Birmingham to London should see highs top 90 degrees (32C) by Jul 10.

NORTHERN IRELAND WAS GREAT BRITAIN’S CENTRE FOR EXTREMES

Though here at my house in Lennoxtown, Scotland, it was cloudy and didn’t break 70… Across the short stretch of water known as the North Channel, skies were clear and it got warm in Northern Ireland with a UK maximum set at Castlederg in County Tyrone of 80 degrees (26.5C). Incidentally, the UK’s lowest reading yesterday morning fell to 39 degrees at Katesbridge in County Down. This is a small country and I thought this was interesting to see a substantial 24 hour contrast, restricted to N.I.

HOUSTON AND TEXAS AS WELL AS THE REST OF THE SUNBELT SOUTH CONTINUES TO SWELTER, SLIGHTLY COOLER UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FROM NEW ORLEANS TO ATLANTA WITH HIGHER STORM CHANCES TODAY!

Unfortunately those living from St Louis to Dallas, yep, this afternoon is another hot day. Dallas is currently 100 whilst a much sweater 97 degrees is roasting Houston right now.. The issue with Houston is the dangerous humidity which makes that 97 feel more like 105. Though Galveston on the coast is less hot in air temp, with current 90 degree temp, the 80 degree humidity makes it feel every bit as back as Houston, plus nights down there run 5-6 degrees higher thanks to the upper 80 degrees waters….
The upper ridge, though slightly further northwest as Houston, will keep skies relatively cloud free with only a 20% rain chance today, though that will rise to 50% tomorrow and Wednesday as the high shifts far enough away that it rotates moisture in from the SE and brings a greater thunderstorm risk for the Houston area. Tempwise it won’t reduce temps as the high is still strong despite it’s core moving away a little. High will continue to run by day into the mid to upper 90s, nights the mid to upper 70. Around 80 as always for Galveston.

KHOU.com’s 7-day Houston Forecast

Here were yesterday highs across the US.
Courtesy of the Weather Channel

Vagaries of the Weather
India & Sub-Continental Asia Weather
By Rajesh Kapadia

Tuesday, June 22, 2010

Starting with the developments aliong the West coast of India,we see the UAC (Upper Air Circulation) in the trough has become less marked.

Now, this development means that there is no UAC present to cross the coast near Mumai as estimated earlier, and as a result, I would scale down the quantum of rainfall estimated earlier.
 
Since the coastal trough still hangs on (see IMD map),we can expect rains on a lesser scale to continue along the coast North of Karnataka this week.

As mentioned yesterday, I personally think that the Monsoon axis trough running west-east along the Northern plains of India, has had some role to play in the vanishing of the UAC. I have always been sceptical when this axis shifts northwards, as it heralds a “break” period for the peninsula regions, and can weaken the trough, or any embedded low in it.

With the trough intact, as it will be till Friday 25th. at least,rainfall to some extent will continue along the coast and in the interior areas of Maharashtra and Karnataka thru this week.

If, after this week, the axis of the monsoon shifts further north towards the Himalayas, and deepens,then the entire peninsula region is in for an unwanted “break”. This may delay the monsoon progress into the Northern regions and subsequently into the North-West corner.

Though nobody wants a break now, the MJO forecast (see this link) shows the “unwanted negative” MJO waves during the next 15 days. When positive, it creates the “lows” and the depressions, and the rain bearing systems into the monsoon currents. When forecasts show a negativity, it reads as less systems in the regions.It is one of the few aspects of the weather that can be skilfully predicted beyond about 2 weeks into the future.

But, I really hope that things change for the better, and Nature eventually ridicules man’s forecasting. We will keep our observations updated and monitor the same.

Meanwhile, the extreme in the Northern belt continues with a special mention of a minimum of 33.8c at Gwalior last night, and 32.6c as the low at New Delhi.

Mumbai: Will continue to get the passing showers on Tuesday, with about 10 mms of rain. Wednesday’s forecast may have to be scaled down due to the reasons discussed. City can expect a few more showers, with rainfall during the day totaling 20mms. Thru Friday, Mumbai can get passing thunder rain, and with the rainfall scaled down, city may just about recieve 25-30mms till Friday.

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What’s Reaching Today’s Blogs?

Are Record High Gulf Sea Temperatures Due to Oil?
Jesse Ferll, AccuWeather

Today’s Extremes here at my house

High: 75 degrees
Low: 54 degrees

TODAY’S COND
An overall bright, sunny and pleasantly warm day with only ptchy mid and high level clouds, some of which of the puffy fair weather cumulus type, formed by a warming surface.

Thanks for reading.
-Mark

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