>"Probabilistic" forecasting will and is failing more and more

Written by on March 7, 2010 in Rest of Europe with 2 Comments

>Whilst watching a youtube video (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gm25CJo7Cm8&feature=related) regarding the Met Office winter forecast which clearly stated a mild winter or greater chance than not of a mild winter, when those who represent the Met Office and state their forecast was still stating 30% of a colder than normal winter, their clutching at straws im affraid.

The Met Office and NOAA both go purely by their super mathmatical models which appear to be driving the bandwagon of global warming and rides on a 30-year average which by the way is a 30 years of global warming but NOT made-made nor unusual when looking at the longer term cycle of earth’s climate…. ALWAYS REMEMBER satalitte data which is the best source at measuring earth’s temperature has only been around for 30 years, therefore the data from before that period can be simply manipulated and transfered onto paper making us all or those who don’t look deeper into the global warming theory against historical reality believe we are unprecidentally warming and out of control because of vital CO2 which is needed for life on earth.

The intelligent folk of the Met Office, NOAA and other scientific groups don’t seem to want to look at past “warm periods” on our earth that BTW were WARMER than what we have just seen since 1979 when the last cold phase came to an end.

The Met Office Director of Operations stated in the news interview that the Met Office forecasted “very accurately” the snow and cold period ahead. Well that is like me looking at a 5-day forecast on the BBC website or on the news and saying it’s going to snow on Tuesday and then when it arrives say, see I told you it would snow. It’s not difficult these days to forecast 4-7 days out of a cooling down and snow when there are modeling out there that shows these short term changes very well!

In an age which I strongly believe is turning colder once again for the next 30 year period, the method of seeing warmer and warmer weather will always result in egg on the face on those promoting a warming world simply because the evidence is all around that earths temperature is not warming but quite the opposite and has been for roughly 10 years.

Probability forecasting is very much “covering yourself from all angles”. Forecast say 70% warm and 30% cold, well even if it ends cold but I truely forecasted “warm”, well there was still 30% in there for cold, so that means we were correct, no I’m affraid it doesn’t, like ive said, this is a cop out and very misleading to the public. It’s tricking us into a false sense of security and cheating us from the truth of what’s going on…

Rather than forecasting in a style where you look at global patterns, such as what the ENSO status and where it may be heading a month or 6 months down the road, what’s the Atlantic or Pacific temperatures currently at and where are the warm/cool pools set up. Where are the wet and dry zones and ridge/trough positions and what are they telling us as well as of course what the Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation is doing and what are the modeling saying they will do?…

Saying there’s a certain percentage of warm or cold is I’m affrid to say a complete cop out and the Met Office as well as NOAA which really work hand in hand especially when it comes to global warming, is very much driven by a warm bias in their models, which will and is starting to fail as our earth is showing all signs of a return to a colder generation.

The sun is the key driver and this drives the second key to earth’s temperature balance, the oceans..

Why does a person who has only studied weather and climate for as little as 10 years and has no professional backdrop to the subject beat the Met Office who are one of the best if not thee best meteorological group in the world so easily?

I forecasted clearly and without percentage or other numerical probability that a major turn to cold would occur during the second half of December 2009 after a warm, wet and windy November… I stated that we could have a memorable and historic winter..

This of course did occur. What did I base my simplistic forecast on? What is already there, what has happened before when one, two or three ingredients are in place and what El Ninos, what cold Pacific verses warm Atlantic ocean temperature feedback to the atmosphere can do over the UK as well as closely taking into consideration the fact that the low solar activity could result in the “perfect winter for Britain”. A modest El Nino centered over the central Pacific, a low solar cycle and the early deep cold wave in October as well as a very wet autumn all pointed to a high potential signal for a cold to potentially historic winter.

So what’s driving the global warming theory and what has the government got to do with all this?

Well for those who aren’t aware of this, the Met Office and NOAA are government owned and basically run by the goverment, afterall they fund the technology and pay the wages. So, to have “global warming” which is growing worse and with their power with global media, by promoting “global warming” to which it will ultimately destroy and end our world, it is bullying us and presenting fear which is making us dig into our pockets, money which we can’t afford to throw away, to pay into things that we A) don’t understand and B) aren’t questioning because we automatically watch their stunning seemingly unflawless presentation as to what’s going to happen. By scaring us then changing laws which force higher taxes etc, they gain to make billions and even trillions off a frighened public so it’s a major scam in which the government is using to make more money. Afterall the prove is in taxing and further taxing products in which we suffer but do we see these politicians suffering, are they having pay cuts? No their earnings are rising thanks to us believing what they say, therefore it’s up to use to educate ourselves and then speak up… Otherwise we will be doomed by made-made disaster theories for pure greed and nothing else.

What happens when cooling begins and we have a brutal cold and snowy winter? whispers from a silenced room cry global warming is the cause to the cooling and increase in water vapor and snow etc, … of course! But, wait for it… when there’s a heatwave this summer, the party will bgins and shouts from the mountaintops will cry global warming….

All these comments are based on my own personal opinion and we all have the freedom to voice our opinions.

Thanks for reading.
-Mark Vogan

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  1. dissertation says:

    >well post, i was looking the same information to write global warming essay.

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