>March to be 4th straight month well below normal?

Written by on March 3, 2010 in Rest of Europe with 0 Comments

>When looking at the BBC forecast, it appears many Highland areas remain in a struggle to see days get much above 35F with some spots remaining at or slightly below freezing. Sheltered and snow covered or not, it’s now March and that sunshine is getting ever stronger, so these daytime highs are impressive and becoming more impressive as we enter deeper into so-called spring.

I say that of course in relation to the warm period we MAY have been sitting at the edge of!! Back in the days of real winter, these temps at these locations aren’t unusual, in fact back in the 60s and 70s with some years in between, these were the norm at this point in winter, it’s just we have been so very mild up until this winter.

Tonight’s forecast is like a broken record… Some Highland spots may touch 5F or -15C tonight, whilst Glasgow’s forecast low is 23F/-5C. I’ll tell ya this, some Dec, Jan or Feb lowest readings over the past 10 years haven’t managed to fall below that number forecasted tonight, yet this number, like the persistent nights that are both being forecasted below freezing as well as actual below freezing nights is quite amazing. Every night at this moment is expected to be below freezing for Glasgow, ranging from tonights 23 to the mildest being, 32.. In some mild winters such as 2007-2008, a 5-day night stretch below freezing would be something, but this seems like it’s the “norm” this year, but even for me, I’m becoming quite amazed at just how much sub-freezing nights we’re getting this late in winter…

I do believe March may end below normal for both Glasgow’s site which I watch regularly, but even across the UK it seems likely to me that March will be yet another month below normal with snow and cold. Glasgow’s 5.2 below normal in February marked the winters second coldest month with December being the coldest. In terms of number of below freezing nights, December wins with 23 nights. January, though marked harsh only because the nights first the first 10 days were so low. January only marked 17 nights below freezing and what also made January seem worse was the first 10 days saw the longest string of below freezing days as well as the very cold nights, the time of year played a big role at that point as so did the snowcover across most of the country. February was actually colder than January when spread out over the month with an impressive 21 nights below freezing…

So, what will March bring? Well I am not making an actual forecast for this month nor am I for the spring months but will be making a summer forecast which should be on here by March 31. If I was to add a few thoughts on March it would be this.

A cold first half of the month, where the snow is lying and lying deep, it will remain until April and will likely remain on the cool side through much of the month in those places thanks to that snow which will keep cooling their air from below. Where the snow isn’t lying, well I believe the last 10 days “should” begin to resemble spring proper and we should see the last of winter in terms of very cold nights and cooler than normal days by the second half of March, this includes the central belt of Scotland and much of the rest of the UK except those higher level places with snow, however I do stand by the fact we have frosts right up until April 10th but daytime highs should correspond with the time of year and we may see some nice warm days…

Thanks for reading.
-Mark

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