>BREAKING WEATHER NEWS: Heavy snow and strong winds bring low visibility and hazerdous driving across Scotland

Written by on January 29, 2010 in Rest of Europe with 7 Comments

>FRIDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE HAS NOW BEEN ADDED TO THIS POST…

Images from my office this morning

It’s currently blowing between 10-20 mph out of the northwest with current air temperature here down to 31 degrees. It was 34 degrees just after 9am but readings have dropped as heavy windblown snow moved in creating low visibilties with blowing of the fresh snow on the ground. Even roofing of houses, garages etc are seeing gusty winds whip the fine snow off them creating facinating “wintry” sights..
Wind chills are also low with a feels-like of 18-22 degrees bringing back the first taste of winter since the thaw began around Jan 10th. With deadly cold across most of Eurooe and Asia, the much anticipated cold to commence February may have begun but I am not going all out to say it has fully arrived but the drum beat to a westward adanvce of the brutal cold over Europe may be starting and cold (below freezing) days and nights that drop into the low 20s and teens may be once again fast approaching.

The snowclouds have pushed south from the house here and blue sky has appeared. A thin covering of snow measured at perhaps a quarter to half inch lies on the ground and if winds lighten and skies clear tonight, we may see lows drop towards 25 or lower overnight tonight. Since the thaw and warm period began our lowest nighttime reading has been a mild 29 degrees.

Todays will see strong, gusty winds which will hold daytime readings only to the mid-30s and wind chills will remain at between 20-25 degrees.
FRIDAYS AFTERNOON UPDATE
The fight zone between continental and Atlantic air is right over us as packed isobars and a roaring jet stream at 35,000 feet over our heads is trying to bring cold air that has swollen over Europe and is creating major problems across mainland Europe with temperatures in Bulgaria the lowest since 1933 and Romania where it’s been as cold as -35C in recent days which is killing many is trying to regain ground since it’s midmonth departure. That killer cold air mass is trying to push west, eventually like back in the mid to later point of December the Atlantic will give in to too much pressure from the much more dominant Arctic air this winter. We hit 39 degrees today which was helped by Atlantic air and this air with a beating late January sun, melted this morning fresh covering of snow. In areas that was sheltered from the sun, still have a covering. A piece of colder continental air was picked up from the interior of Europe rotated in from the north and with a push of Atlantic moisture out of the southwest, the cold air in place had the upper hand this morning, even decieving forecasters which even at the 6.09am TV forecast did not forecast the snowfall here, they were only correct with snow, at times heavy and perhaps even with blizzard conditions over the NORTH of Scotland.
I was slightly surprised forecasters did not look at vital signs such as wind, humidity, wind direction and most importantly, what the temperature at the various heights of the atmosphere was over the Central Belt which would have told them, snow not rain would fall and start accummulating right within the morning rush hour period in Glasgow. A forecast failure which may have caused people to be less cautious at the “surprise” snowfall which may have caused an increase in accidents.. My question then goes to ask, what do these forecasters do for preperation before going on air? After all, forecasting presentation is embarressingly simplistic to the viewer and does not present several other “essential facts”. This would suggest that a simplistic, basic and poor forecast presentation is brought by a person with little knowledge themselves. When I brought you the forecast of -10C air about 1 week prior to it actually occuring in the week leading up to Christmas, BBC forecasts called for lows only in the -1 to -3C range, only adjusting to the much colder readings a day or two in advance. This short notice information is what makes this country so unprepared. I based much of my forecasts on simple meteorological “common sense”. Noone knew about the cold invasion in the run up to Christmas simply because no TV forecast told us. Like in some US weather agencies, we need to start telling the public about what “may” lie ahead in the 1-2 week range, even if it’s just basing it on what long-range models are suggesting. We also need to start getting told about the jet stream as the jet plays a massive role in what our weather is and will do.
After a push of cooler air off the continent which was transported by a northerly flow aloft which cooled the lowest milf of the atmosphere, supporting the precipitation as snow down to the ground this morning and brought a fresh reminder to a country that thanks in part to the media believe winter is done. Not by a long shot, after all we seem to forget that it’s still January. What many also won’t be aware of is the fact the much of the vast Northern Heisphere is unusually cold. It would take more for us to remain mild than it would for a piece or westward migration of this enormous cold pool which is sitting right on our eastern horizon to bring winter back for a second visit.
What I think may bring a facinating month of February is that I am still unsure at what role the Atlantic and Arctic air will play here in Britain. I don’t quite believe will see an unbroken 2-3 week period of bitter cold but more a regular fight between these two conflicting air masses which may bring substantial snowfalls across much of the British Isles. However I do see some very cold air envelop our part of the world and this may lock in for perhaps a week or so and may replay late Dec and earlyJanuary.
This is a complex forecasting period, one that is testing me more and more.. but the pattern now set up could not be more exciting to watch and forecast.
10pm UPDATE
It’s currently a bright, starry and moonlit evening with a current temperature of 29 degrees which will fall off through the overnight but the big question is will we see a calming of wind which has currently picked up a bit after it dropped off between 4-5pm. If we can remain very clear and winds lighten up, I expect a low down to 22 or 23 degrees by sunrise.. but if they remain blowing even just a bit the mixing will be enough to hold temps in the upper 20s..
3.30am Saturday morning update
Clear with current temp 28 with approx 8mph NW wind. windchill 19.

More later.

Thanks for reading.
-Mark

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  1. Anonymous says:

    >very interesting reading Marc what do you think then are we going to get more snow in Feb in north west Scotland ? thanks….

  2. Anonymous says:

    >Congratulations on the Daily Mail article. Perhaps if you get the second part of your winter forecast right you will make the pages of The Scotsman or The Herald.

  3. Anonymous says:

    >I fear I may have to opt for Glasgow tennis racquets to traverse the city.

  4. Mark'sWxWorld says:

    >where abouts are you writing from?

  5. Mark'sWxWorld says:

    >still have snowcover!

  6. Anonymous says:

    >Man alive!

    Was this a localised flutter restricted to a half-mile radius? Did it melt quickly?

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