>Official United Kingdom and Europe Winter Forecast 2009-2010

Written by on November 1, 2009 in Rest of Europe with 6 Comments

>– By Mark Vogan



After a warm, wet and windy November across much of Western Europe, much of the continent will become colder and snowier than normal as December leads into January 2010 with a high potential for near continent-wide snow cover and extreme cold which spreads east to west under a powerful Arctic-Siberian High.

NOVEMBER 2009

Progressively colder throughout November over eastern Europe as the reservoir of Arctic air swells over the pole and the continental effect settles in naturally forcing the deep interior nations to get cold first..




THE UNITED KINDOM AND THE LOW COUNTRIES ALONG THE NORTH SEA COAST

The Arctic Oscillation and particularly the North Atlantic Oscillation Signalling suggests a generally mild month of November for Western Europe and the United Kingdom. A positive NAO and AO to begin the month forces a strong Atlantic (zonal) flow across the UK, France, Netherlands, Germany, Czech Republic with some severe gale-centers likely to progress across the continent effecting Ireland, Scotland and England first with 60-80 mph winds, torrential rains and some damage potential is likely. Flooding is also likely, high elevated areas of the Scottish Highlands and Western European countries are likely to see winds in excess of 100-150 mph..



COOLING CONTINENT AND STRONG ATLANTIC FLOW MEANS HEAVY SNOWS

As a westerly flow drives persistent low pressure systems off the Atlantic, colder air will bleed into northern Scandinavia and countries from the Baltic nations, Poland on eastward across the Ukraine, Moldova and into Romania and Bulgaria as the natural progression of less daylight and continental cooling sets in, heavy rains will turn to heavy snows as the air mass is cold, The Alps of France, Italy, Switzerland, Austria will all see heavy and possibly record snowfall through November.

Big time snowfall is likely simply because of the strong Atlantic push of moisture rich air and a progressively colder air mass building across eastern Europe as winter sets in.



DECEMBER 2009

Continued mild and unsettled over UK and Low Countries, much colder over the continent to start the month, Major cold pushes westward into the Low Countries and UK to end the month.


As Northern Ireland/Ireland, Scotland, England and Wales continue to experience above normal temperatures and above normal precipitation into December as well as Denmark, Netherlands, western Germany, and France, central European countries will start to see normal temperatures drop into below normal territory in the first 2 weeks of December. I strongly believe much of Europe should become progressively colder with Bulgaria, Romania, Ukraine, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia feeling the cold from November 10th onwards and the intensifying cold will push westwards. Abundant snow cover should aid in strengthening the Arctic high as it drops over Europe and expands westward throughout December.

As the continent drops from November’s “Normal temps” to early December’s normal to mid-December’s below normal, The British Isles will become colder in the last two weeks leading up to Christmas.



BY CHRISTMAS 2009 I EXPECT TO SEE SNOW COVERING MUCH OF THE BRITISH ISLES, SCOTLAND, ENGLAND, WALES, IRELAND AND NORTHERN IRELAND SHOULD SEE SNOW AND A SIBERIAN-SCANDINAVIAN HIGH SETTLE IN FOR THE ERIOD BETWEEN DEC 20TH THROUGH NEW YEAR.

By Christmas, Europe will be under snow and high pressure with a persistent sweep of arctic air blowing straight from Siberia and interior Europe across Poland, Germany, France, Netherlands, Belgium and across the North Sea into Britain.

This cold progression leading into Christmas will be a result of a major hemispheric flip from mainly positive AO/NAO to negative as Greenland warms as a blocking ridge sets up over the North Atlantic.

November through mid-December sees the Atlantic jets and a naturally cooling continent set the stage with heavy snows and as the continent continues cooling, the cold basically will swell westward. The pressure forced in the atmosphere will switch the NAO/AO index and all the cold bottled up across the pole will drain southwards..



January 2010

After a cold November and very cold December in eastern Europe and mild western Europe but progressively colder as December ended, the turnaround hits by early January around New Year as the CORE OF COLDEST AIR will migrate westward, and although likely still colder than normal for Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Ukraine and up into Russia it won’t be as cold. Worst of the core will perhaps center itself over the Baltic nations of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, Poland, Germany , Czech Republic and on down into the Alpine countries of southern France, Italy, Switzerland and Austria..


If the major stratospheric warming event occurs which I believe it will and the Arctic empties it’s reservoir of cold over much of Europe and North America, record breaking cold is very likely from Germany and Poland, on westbound towards the United Kingdom where Glasgow, Edinburgh should have several inches of snow covering the ground from pre-Christmas snowfalls on the leading edge of the westbound Arctic high colliding with moist Atlantic air. A Scandinavian high and east flow could support a week to 10-day period where Glasgow and Edinburgh may fail to reach the freezing mark for a week to 10 days and nights that could plummet to -10 to -18C on several nights, rivalling the cold that hit in late December 1995. Highland Scotland may take a run at the national low of -27C and England and Wales may see sheltered valleys fail to warm above -6C and lows that drop towards -15 to -20C particularly around Shap Fell in the Lake District of Cumbria, England and Snowdonia National Park of Wales.



The high elevated Scottish Glens with typical cold places such as Altnaharra, Dalwhinnie, Aviemore and Tulloch Bridge may achieve lows as cold as -18 to -22C if the Scandinavian blocking high is strong enough and centered far enough west as well as having deep and widespread snow cover on the ground which is vital in not moderating the cold air mass too much, surrounding waters do naturally modify Scandinavian-Siberian highs thus giving the reason why interior Eurtope is much colder as they‘re further from the warm ocean effect.

If we can manage to get the combination of minimal daylight, lowest angled sun (early January), continent wide snow cover and a strong and mature Arctic high pressure system directly over west-central Europe then it’s very plausible to see these kinds of temperatures achieved this winter season.

I am predicting a major deep freeze across Britain between New Year and early February in which we see the coldest temperatures since the last truly bitter Arctic Outbreak which occurred in the severe winter of 95-96.

Places across Scotland, England, Wales and Ireland may loose power and folks in rural areas may become stranded by deep snow drifts as roads close. The risk of widespread pipe bursts is a major concern as the cold could become severe and prolonged.

As the polar jet stream drives southward and we have a likely enhanced southern jet stream pushing into Spain and Portugal and across southern Europe, even places like Italy, Greece and many of the Mediterranean islands may see snow across the higher ground and in unusual places as the cold pool over Europe pushes further south than normal. A colder winter is likely in these normally milder southern countries.

Alpine Europe to experience record or near record cold..

The Alps of France, Italy, Switzerland and Austria are likely to see their third bumper snow year in a row, along with the severity of cold predicted from early January to early February is I believe likely to see some of the coldest temperatures in these countries coldest spots in 30 to 50 years, could see see some all-time national records challenged?

Scotland, England, Ireland and Wales in for 2-week cold blast, not month long!!

All in all, The United Kingdom won’t see a month-long cold outbreak but more a 2 week severe cold spell which will settle in from Norway, Sweden and Finland after frequent snows hit between Dec 18-25th but the overall setting will be below normal with below normal precipitation as cold high pressure should dominate from the end of December and throughout January. We are likely to see a back and forth pattern in which the cold is never way away as Europe remains frozen unabated but the UK and low countries remain influenced, though much less so than normal by the warming effect of the Atlantic. We may see milder days, even above normal days but cold spells return after only quick warm-ups from a west, southwest flow which will fail to penetrate the cold pool over Europe.

February 2010

February 2010 will start as January left off with the core of cold centered over interior western Europe and impulses of this air mass penetrating the UK frequently. A possible warmer than normal pattern may set up as a Middle East warm pools migrates north into the exact area that started off coldest in the Nov-Dec period.



February could by a trickier forecast month as it’s possible we see an even colder Arctic outbreak for “far western Europe” I.e. the region from southern Norway, Sweden and Finland, down to Germany and west into the UK, with the core now centering over the Netherlands and Belgium and another run at the coldest air of winter into London, Manchester, Glasgow, Edinburgh on up to Inverness..

Places such as London, Brussels, Amsterdam, Copenhagen and Munich, Berlin, Vienna, Geneva all could take a run at record cold this winter at varying times when the core of coldest air is nearest these cities. Countries such as Germany, Poland, Lithuania and the Czech Rep could take a run at their all-time coldest temperature.

November will be warmer than normal, December will also be warmer than normal or normal, January below normal but England could be well below normal. February could be well below normal for all of the UK and coldest month of all.




Reasons for this forecast




I have had a heavy heart throughout summer that this winter was going to be a severe winter possibly not seen in many lifetime (26 years).

A weak to moderate El Nino (often portrays a cold NW Europe winter), cooler North Atlantic than recent years and the fact that the solar cycle is near record low and lowest in 75 years tells me that the likelihood of a memorable winter is highly possible this year and solar activity is very underplayed in it’s effect on our earth.




Also the trends and pattern evolution in recent years has also brought me to this conclusion for this forecast and although I am possibly jumping the gun with such a severe winter outlook and I am kinda concerned because of this going very much against the trend of the last decade, I am basing this on several things and I also want to go all out with this, as, if this forecast actually materialised or came close, then I would be one of the only ones to get this forecast right. The Hadley Centre is forecasting a warmer-than-normal winter, other sources predict a colder winter across much of Europe but I believe the stage is set for the possibility of this winter becoming much worse than many think…




Coldest place and country on record verses my forecasted coldest this winter

Mouthe, France -41 -30

La Brevine, Switzerland -42 -35

Sonnblick, Austria -37 -30

Livigno, Italy -38 -30

Siedlce, Poland -41 -39

Litvinovice. Czech Rep -42 -35

Utena, Lithuania -43 -40

Daugavpils, Latvia -43 -38

Horsted, Denmark -31 -25

Rocheford, Belgium -30 -26

Winterwijk, Netherlands -27 -27**

Estany Gento, Spain -33 -20

Ptolemaida, Greece -28 -18

Markree, Ireland -20 -15

Braemar, Altnaharra, Scotland -27 -25

Shawbury, Shropshire, England -26.1 -20

 

 

Thanks for reading.

If you have questions or comments regarding this forecast, please don’t hestitate to email me at superior37@hotmail.com or write in the comments link below.

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  1. keith wardrop , hamilton says:

    >so its sledging weather up the campsies over christmas

  2. Anonymous says:

    >Thanks your great predıctıon. What do you thınk about south of Turkıye for this winter? For example for Konya, Karaman and Nigde city. I wonder and I trust your comments.I am a farmer. If you answer , I will be very happy … Mehmet YILDIZBAS mehmetyildizbas@hotmail.com

  3. kaan says:

    >Thanks your great predıctıon. What do you thınk about north of Turkıye? For example for İstanbul. I wonder and I trust your comments. If you answer , i will be very happy … thanks a lot

  4. Leif says:

    >This sounds bleak. Should we give up our refrigerators for winter and store perishables outside?

  5. Mark'sWxWorld says:

    >-4 TO -6 perhaps colder, areas nearer the coast wont see as cold as places like edinburgh or glasgow

  6. JamieD5 says:

    >what lows should we expect here in Lochgelly this coming winter season? I feel you should incorporate Lochgelly as a central point in your forecasts. The residents of Lochgelly will give their full support!

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