>Mark Vogan issues tropical weather forecast for next few days

Written by on August 17, 2009 in Rest of Europe with 0 Comments

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Water temps (courtesy of Accuweather.com)

It’s complications galore…

Now that Claudette is off the field and wringing itself out presently over Alabama as a rainstorm and remnant low, we now turn our focus to what’s left in the Atlantic basin, two systems that are complicated in their own right as one encounters land now for the next few days and the other spins around weather systems that hold the US in it’s hands.

ANA

Tropical Depression Ana is now passing through the islands of the eastern Caribbean Sea, several things that are important. This system is in a weak state, though weak it is, that is actually an advantage to it and a bad thing for the US, why? simply because a weaker system can tend to hold together better over land than say a cat 3 or 4 hurricane. The mountains of Haiti and the Dominican Rep. will take a punch at disrutping the inner core, then tomorrow into Wednesday it’s likely Cuba’s turn. These islands all have sharp and high mountains, with some topping over 12,000 feet. A weaker system tends to manage to reorganise or strengthen easier than a powerful mature and well developed core, therefore it takes less to rev up the system once away from land and out over warm waters, given that the atmosphere in nice an calm and moist… Ana is a concern for me as I think it could reform as a tropical storm once leaving Cuba and into the very warm profile of the eastern Gulf of Mexico. If it managed to get across the islands faster, it is more likely to reform faster and with deep, warm water and possible interaction with the loop current I wouldn’t be surprised to see Ana rapidly intensify and become perhaps a hurricane (maybe not a strong hurricane) but a hurricane nontheless and take aim at perhaps a similar area as Claudette effected this morning. Perhaps a track further west into the Gulf would widen the window of oppertunity to strengthen into a stronger system and take aim at perhaps New Orleans.

My prediction as of this evening is….

Tropical Depression Ana remains weak as it crosses Haiti, Dominican Rep and Cuba over the next 24 to 36 hours, dumping torrential flooding rains and gusty winds, the chance for redevelopment is that less time over land and the weak state of the storm helps an easier reorganising of the core can help bring rapid refire over the 85-90 degree waters of the Florida straits and eastern Gulf (possible interaction with deep, warm loop current) could lead to return to tropical storm status, also a factor to remember is that it may cross the same area Claudette did, if so and slightly better organised, a better chance of becoming a strong tropical storm or even hurricane. Claudette did strengthen and organise over this region..

BILL

As for Hurricane Bill, two opitions show up with both the GFS and UKMET. The GFS shows a weakness in between the Bermuda High (mid-Atlantic ridge) and a ridge core over Florida and southeast US. This would bring Bill up and into that weakness between two cores of high pressure and would steer this system north once as far west as the Lesser Antilles and a threat to Bermuda may be a problem. As for the UKMET, it does not see that weakness and brings the ridge further west with a trough axis over the Ohio Valley. With that second scenario, that would suggest, a further west track towards the Bahamas and then a turn northwest and then north, the million dollar question to that would be how far west would Bill go before the turn? The recurving with scenario one presented by the GFS “may” and only may have a higher possibility but if the second scenario happens with the UKMET, we could have a serious problem from the Carolinas to New England…

As far as strength goes. Bill presently a strong category 1 hurricane with 90 mph sustained winds is strengthening and with only borderline warm water criteria, this tells me with past history of this region around the mouth of the eastern Caribbean Sea to Bermuda and west, south (that box area) has some extremely warm, deep waters and many hurricanes from Andrew to Ivan to Isabel all have rapidly intensified over this wide area. I am fully anticipating a cataegory 4 hurricane Bill within the next 3 days as Bill appraoches much warmer but more importantly deeper waters. The atmosphere has less dry air (in part thanks to Ana) and less shear, will provide this system a window to rapidly intensify.. A possible Isabel situation could happen, not that i’m saying it’s going to cat 5 strength (at the moment anyway) but path could be similar. Perhaps a more worse case would be a Hugo…

For expert information and more click on http://www.accuweather.com/ and check out Joe Bastardi and Dan Kottlowski’s information on the tropical situation..

These are busy, stressful days. I suffered a headache tonight and I am wondering if I am thinking about what’s going on in the tropics too much!

Stay tuned to this blog for all the very latest. Feel free to email or send me your comments (by clicking at the bottom of this post) to send me your feedback and your own ideas on this sutuation).

I shall update tomorrow.

Thanks as always for reading.

-Mark

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