>Prediction: 4-6 named storms, 2 hurricanes, 1 major, that hits US.
It’s amazing at just how quiet the tropical world has been the past few months, not just in the Atlantic. Is this good or bad?
So far it’s good. Not so much because of El Nino which has only just developed “officially” but more thanks to an unusually strong Azores high pressure (eastern Atlantic high) which has brutalised the western Sahara and coastal northwest Africa in temperatures of 110-120 degrees in Morrocco. What’s that mean to the tropical cyclone season? Well stronger high pressure that’s roasting western and coastal Africa is caused by strong offshore winds (east) which are created by the high, this wind is blowing hard across the Atlantic, thus forcing the ITCZ further south and closer to the equator and with these powerful easterlies we have seen a stunning amount of Sahara dust flow across the Atlantic, ultimately killing any waves chances at development.
1) Africa dust
2) Cooler Atlantic waters
3) Westerlies blowing over the strong easterlies (like a double decked bridge of winds blowing west below winds blowing east, have been creating a hostile tropical belt Atlantic, also aided by a trough over eastern North America and the western Atlantic, aiding in wind shear.
All these factors have stopped anything out there. Now that we’re in August and nothing has come about, what lies in ahead?
I personally have concerns about a one hit wonder. But a storm that does form could be reminiscent of an Andrew or Hugo. We all know what those storms did.
Why do I say that? Andrew didn’t form until August 17. He was the first storm of the season. He also occurred during a cool summer across the eastern US, also was a summer with few storms in the Atlantic and NO 90s in NYC.
I fear that because of no tropical activity yet, there must be a build up of energy somewhere despite cooler than normal waters across the deep tropics, there is still heat generated? The heat has to be removed from somewhere and there’s a lot of heat over the continents (mainly Africa). Where’s the warmest SST’s and deeper water found in comparison to averages for time of year? Off the Southeast coast, Gulf and Caribbean. The build up or collection of heat/energy could be triggered and used more effectively because there hasn’t been anything to use this energy yet. Andrew and other big hurricanes formed and struck with immense power during off-season times, when waters were cooler, summers in the US were cooler and during El Nino years. I worry we may only now get between 4-6 storms for this season but 1 big hit.
Too many people are now forgetting about the tropics, little talk on TV, little worry in peoples minds and then bang, one storm forms in a small area where net energy is maxed out because there has been nothing to use up accumulated energy buildup.
My fears grow of just the one storm that could make for a bad year.
Thanks for reading.
-Mark
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